Huachuang Securities·2025-05-18 15:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The easing of tariff conflicts between China and the US has led to a replenishment effect, with significant price increases observed in butadiene (+17.8%), PX (+12.0%), and PTA (+8.5%) [4][12] - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a dual bottom in profitability and valuation, with the ROE-PB for 2024 dropping to 6.19% and 1.77, while the Q1 2025 ROE-PB has rebounded to 7.55% and 1.85 [4][12] - The report suggests a focus on growth sectors, particularly in new materials that are self-sufficient and critical, as they present investment opportunities [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report highlights a 90-day replenishment window in Sino-US trade following tariff reductions, leading to increased foreign trade inquiries and rising shipping prices [12] - The chemical industry index as of May 18 is 79.16, reflecting a 0.95% increase week-on-week but a 21.44% decrease year-on-year [12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of new materials and suggests focusing on companies that have achieved valuation advantages after years of adjustment [4][12] Price and Price Difference Changes - The report notes that the price percentile for the chemical industry is at 21.88% over the past decade, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% [12] - Significant price increases were recorded for butadiene, PX, and PTA, while declines were noted for ethylenediamine and other chemicals [13] Tracking of Sub-sectors - The report tracks various sub-sectors, including tire materials, agricultural chemicals, and coal chemicals, highlighting investment opportunities in Xinjiang's coal chemical projects [6][19] - It suggests that the agricultural chemical sector is seeing price increases due to rising demand during the spring farming season [15][16] - The report also identifies potential beneficiaries in the coal chemical sector, particularly companies involved in project investments and services in Xinjiang [20][21]