Changjiang Securities·2025-05-18 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [10]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is currently at a dual bottom in both fundamentals and capital, presenting long-term allocation value and short-term valuation recovery opportunities due to low institutional holdings [2][8]. - The supply side is undergoing accelerated clearing, with significant differentiation among companies, as evidenced by financial reports for 2024 and Q1 2025 [6][18]. - The industry is expected to face increased operational pressure in 2025 compared to 2024, with a focus on supply-demand improvements, particularly in silicon material [34]. Summary by Sections Financial Reports - The photovoltaic supply side is clearing, with many companies facing significant short-term cash pressure. The industry’s asset-liability ratio reached 72.4% in Q1 2025, up 9.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][18]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for the main industry chain was -4.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, an improvement from -20.4 billion yuan in the same period last year [24]. - The industry is experiencing a reduction in personnel, with over 129,000 jobs cut in 2024, and a significant decrease in R&D, management, and sales expenses [28][31]. Conclusion - The photovoltaic sector is at a clear bottom, with a low institutional holding ratio of 1.83% in Q1 2025, comparable to levels before the 2020 photovoltaic market rally. This suggests a favorable environment for bottom-fishing opportunities [8][35]. - Key areas to focus on include new technology lines, particularly in the BC supply chain, and segments with strong financial reserves or self-discipline mechanisms [2][35].