纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soda Ash: Soda ash manufacturers continue with maintenance, but the price - support effect this time is not as expected. The futures market did not react to the maintenance, and a continuous positive feedback was not formed. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the intensity of speculation drivers is questionable. It is recommended to pay attention to the new order transaction prices and the implementation of maintenance. After profiting from closing short positions, one can wait for the price to rise and then participate at high levels [8][9]. - Glass: From a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the market sentiment to improve. Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in production lines, the digestion progress of low - price futures and spot sources, and the changes in the spot volume and price sentiment in the main production areas. In the short term, the market lacks upward drivers, and for far - month contracts, it is advisable to go long when the sentiment eases [164]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - Supply: Total production is 67.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.30 million tons. There are maintenance plans, and new production capacity from Lianyungang Soda Plant is expected to produce trial products this month. Import is 0.07 million tons, and export is 4.2 million tons [8]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is 34.39 million tons, and the apparent demand for light soda ash is 28.09 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06 million tons. The terminal is looking for low - price stocks and has sufficient inventory, with general purchasing willingness [8]. - Inventory: Alkali plant inventory is 171.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 million tons. Social inventory is 36.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09 million tons [8]. - Valuation: The cost of the ammonia - soda process is 1322 yuan, and the profit is 78 yuan. The cost of the combined - soda process is 1160 yuan, and the profit is 140 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand (Soda Ash) - Production: The report shows the monthly production of soda ash from 2020 - 2025 [15]. - Import and Export: The current import volume is 0.32 million tons, and the export volume is 19.43 million tons. Compared with last month, imports decreased by 0.23 million tons, and exports increased by 0.02 million tons [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread (Soda Ash) - Futures - Spot Price Comparison: It presents the futures price index of soda ash and the market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - Contract Basis: It shows the basis of heavy soda ash contracts in the Shahe area, such as the 01, 09, and 05 contracts [29][31][32]. - Inter - Contract Spread: It includes the spreads between different soda ash contracts, such as 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 [34][35][36]. - Glass - Soda Ash Spread: It shows the spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot prices [38][39][40]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - Shahe Region: The current market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1345 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan, and a year - on - year decrease of 905 yuan [44]. - Regional Price Comparison: It provides the prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions, such as North China, South China, and Southwest China [48]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - Start - Stop: Many soda ash manufacturers are in maintenance or reduced - load operation, and there are also planned maintenance schedules in the future [81]. - Operating Rate: The current domestic soda ash operating rate is 80.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.51% [82]. - Cost and Profit: It shows the cost and profit of the ammonia - soda and combined - soda processes, as well as the prices of related products such as synthetic ammonia [93][95][97]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - Heavy Soda Ash Demand: It is related to the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass. The daily melting volume of float glass is 156,725 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass is 98,780 tons [8][126]. - Weekly Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio: It presents the weekly consumption and sales - to - production ratio of heavy and light soda ash [133]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - Enterprise Inventory: The current soda ash enterprise inventory is 171.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 82.09 million tons [141]. - Regional Inventory: It shows the inventory of soda ash in different regions [149][150][152]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 156,725 tons, and the weekly production is 109.71 million tons [162]. - Demand: The apparent consumption is 107.10 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.37 million tons. The market demand sentiment is weak [162]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 340.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.61 million tons [162]. - Valuation: The cost and profit of different production lines (natural gas, coal - gas, and petroleum coke) are provided. Most production capacities are in a loss state [162]. 3.9 Monthly Supply and Demand (Glass) - Production: The monthly production of flat glass from 2020 - 2025 is presented [169]. - Import and Export: The monthly import and export volumes of float glass from 2020 - 2025 are shown [171][173]. 3.10 Basis and Spread (Glass) - Futures - Spot Price Comparison: It shows the futures price index of glass and the market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area from 2020 - 2025 [178][179]. - Contract Basis: It presents the basis of glass contracts in the Shahe area, such as the 01, 09, and 05 contracts [183][184][185]. - Inter - Contract Spread: It includes the spreads between different glass contracts, such as 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 [187][188][189]. - Glass - Soda Ash Spread: It shows the spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot prices [192][193][194]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - Float Glass 5mm Regional Price: The prices of 5mm float glass in different regions, such as Shahe, North China, and East China, are provided [200]. - Specific Product Prices: It shows the prices of 5mm float glass products from different manufacturers in different regions [213][215][222].