耀看光伏第6期——透过财报，展望光伏行业供给侧走势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [9] Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is currently at a dual bottom in both fundamentals and capital, presenting long-term allocation value and short-term valuation recovery opportunities due to low institutional holdings [2][7] - The supply side is undergoing accelerated clearing, with significant differentiation among companies, as evidenced by financial reports for 2024 and Q1 2025 [5][34] - The overall industry debt ratio has increased to 72.4% in Q1 2025, up 9.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating substantial financial pressure on companies [5][20] Summary by Sections Financial Reports - The cash pressure on companies is significant, with most main chain companies having a quick ratio of less than 1, indicating that short-term cash reserves are insufficient to cover short-term liabilities [5][16] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the main industry chain was -4.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, an improvement from -20.4 billion yuan in the same period last year [5][22] - The industry is experiencing a reduction in personnel, with over 129,000 jobs cut in 2024, reflecting cost-cutting measures amid profitability pressures [28][29] Conclusion - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry will face increased operational pressure in 2025 compared to 2024, with expectations of accelerated supply-side clearing in the second half of the year [34] - The core of profitability recovery lies in the improvement of silicon material supply and demand, driven by market pressures and supportive policies [34][35] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights opportunities for bottom-fishing in the sector, particularly focusing on new technology lines and supply-demand improvement lines [2][7] - It recommends paying attention to companies with strong financial reserves and those that can manage supply constraints effectively [2][7]