社会服务行业2024A&2025Q1业绩综述：青山愈显处，韧行见新章

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the social services industry [9] Core Insights - In 2024, the overall revenue of the social services industry is expected to grow by 0.97% year-on-year, with a 13.71% increase compared to 2019. Key sectors such as hotels, scenic spots, and restaurants are benefiting from resilient demand and market share expansion [2][4] - The overall net profit attributable to shareholders in the social services industry is projected to decline by 43.61% year-on-year, recovering to 50.08% of 2019 levels. Specific sectors show varied performance, with scenic spots and human resources seeing significant growth, while sectors like duty-free and outbound tourism face substantial declines [2][4] Revenue Overview - In 2024, the social services industry is expected to achieve a revenue of 2,627.71 billion yuan, with outbound tourism, human resources, education, restaurants, hotels, scenic spots, and duty-free sectors showing year-on-year growth rates of 83.2%, 14.7%, 5.1%, 3.2%, 1.4%, 0.9%, and -13.5% respectively [20] - In Q1 2025, the industry is anticipated to experience a slight revenue decline of 1.58% year-on-year, although it shows a 23.45% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [2][4] Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin of the social services industry is expected to decrease by 2.37 percentage points to 24.28% in 2024, with varying impacts across sectors. Scenic spots and human resources show positive growth in gross margins, while restaurants and duty-free sectors experience declines [23][24] - The net profit margin for the industry is projected to decline by 2.24 percentage points to 3.83% in 2024, with scenic spots and education sectors showing improvements, while duty-free and outbound tourism face significant declines [26][30] Cash Flow Insights - The operating cash flow of the social services industry is expected to decline by 33.25 percentage points year-on-year, with significant drops in sectors like duty-free and hotels. However, human resources and education sectors are showing improvement in cash flow [33][34] Sector-Specific Highlights - Education: The demand remains strong, with AI+ education products emerging. The sector is witnessing a recovery in compliance and growth among leading institutions [5][40] - Human Resources: The employment market is showing structural recovery, with significant demand in first-tier cities and certain industries. AI technology is expected to enhance efficiency and create new business models [5][40] - Scenic Spots: The tourism sector is experiencing high resilience, with visitor numbers and spending showing double-digit growth, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [6][19] - Hotels: The hotel industry is undergoing deep adjustments, with operational data under pressure. The number of hotel facilities is decreasing while room numbers are increasing [6][19] - Restaurants: The restaurant sector is stabilizing with the help of consumption vouchers, although growth rates are slowing [6][19] - Duty-Free: The duty-free sector is expected to see recovery in sales, particularly in airport channels, despite challenges in the offshore duty-free market [7][19]