EBSCN·2025-05-19 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a gradual increase in copper prices due to improved macroeconomic expectations and potential domestic stimulus policies, alongside a decrease in supply [1][4]. - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has increased, while LME copper inventory continues to decline, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [2][10]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring key indicators such as cable enterprise operating rates and air conditioning production for assessing copper demand [77][97]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 9.9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 5.9% [2][25]. - As of May 16, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 820,000 tons, down 9.0% from the previous week [2][49]. Supply - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [2][49]. - The TC spot price as of May 16, 2025, was -43.03 USD/ton, remaining at historically low levels [3][63]. Demand - Cable enterprises' operating rate was 83.39% as of May 15, 2025, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [3][78]. - In April 2025, copper pipe production was 189,000 tons, down 1.8% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year [3][97]. Futures - As of May 16, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 3.9% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 0.8% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that copper prices are likely to rise in 2025, recommending stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining for investment [4][5].