BABA(09988) 国盛证券·2025-05-19 00:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [4][7]. Core Insights - Alibaba's total revenue for FY2025 Q4 reached 2364.54 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%. The non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was approximately 300 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing accelerated growth in e-commerce and cloud services, with a strong commitment to AI investments [1][3]. Revenue Breakdown by Business Segment - Taobao and Tmall Group: Revenue of 1014 billion RMB, up 9% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately 417 billion RMB, up 8% [2]. - International Commerce: Revenue of 336 billion RMB, a 22% increase year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately -36 billion RMB, narrowing by 13% [2]. - Alibaba Cloud: Revenue of 301 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately 24 billion RMB, a 69% increase [2][3]. - Cainiao: Revenue of 216 billion RMB, down 12% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately -6 billion RMB, narrowing by 55% [2]. - Local Services: Revenue of 161 billion RMB, up 10% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA of approximately -23 billion RMB, narrowing by 28% [2]. - Digital Entertainment: Revenue of 55.5 billion RMB, up 12% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA turned positive, mainly driven by profitability from Youku [2]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 11185 billion RMB, 12360 billion RMB, and 13551 billion RMB respectively. Non-GAAP net profits are expected to be 1613 billion RMB, 1845 billion RMB, and 2081 billion RMB for the same periods [4][6]. - The report anticipates a price target of 164 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 168 USD for the US stock based on a 10x P/E for core e-commerce and a 30x P/E for Alibaba Cloud [4]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Alibaba's capital expenditure for the quarter was approximately 246 billion RMB, reflecting the company's unwavering commitment to AI technology and product development [3]. - The report indicates that Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth is expected to continue accelerating in the upcoming quarters due to strong demand for AI-related products across various industries [3]. Key Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including revenue growth rates, non-GAAP net profit projections, and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the upcoming fiscal years [6][15]. - The projected EPS for FY2026 is 8.4 RMB, increasing to 10.9 RMB by FY2028 [6][15]. Conclusion - The report highlights Alibaba's robust performance in e-commerce and cloud services, alongside a strong focus on AI investments, positioning the company for continued growth in the coming years [1][3][4].