GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-05-19 01:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [4][7]. Core Insights - Alibaba reported total revenue of 2364.54 billion RMB for FY2025 Q4, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%. The non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was approximately 300 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on accelerating growth in e-commerce and cloud services while maintaining strong investments in AI technology [3]. Summary by Business Segment - Taobao and Tmall Group: Revenue reached 1014 billion RMB, a 9% increase year-on-year, with adjusted EBITA of approximately 417 billion RMB, up 8% [2]. - International Commerce: Revenue was 336 billion RMB, showing a 22% year-on-year growth, although adjusted EBITA was -36 billion RMB, narrowing by 13% [2]. - Alibaba Cloud: Revenue grew by 18% to 301 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA increasing by 69% to approximately 24 billion RMB [2][3]. - Cainiao: Revenue decreased by 12% to 216 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA at -6 billion RMB, narrowing by 55% [2]. - Local Services: Revenue increased by 10% to 161 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA of -23 billion RMB, narrowing by 28% [2]. - Digital Entertainment: Revenue was 55.5 billion RMB, up 12%, with adjusted EBITA turning positive, primarily driven by profitability from Youku [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are estimated at 11185 billion RMB, 12360 billion RMB, and 13551 billion RMB respectively. Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be 1613 billion RMB, 1845 billion RMB, and 2081 billion RMB for the same periods [4][6]. - The report anticipates a price target of 164 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 168 USD for the US stock based on a 10x P/E for core e-commerce and a 30x P/E for Alibaba Cloud [4].