华联期货周报：贸易争端降温，期价震荡反弹-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term macro trade disputes have improved, and the positive macro impact has been mostly reflected in the market. With the continuous improvement of supply and demand, nickel prices are expected to be boosted. However, there are still uncertainties in the timely increase of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB approval quota, and policy disturbance risks remain. The Indonesian government's increase in the privilege use fee for nickel resources has raised the supply - side cost. The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term long trading on the SHFE nickel 2507 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mining end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - long View and Strategy - Macro: The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement on reducing or canceling relevant tariffs. The US adjusted its additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with 91% of the tariffs revoked and 34% of the reciprocal tariff measures implemented, of which 24% of the tariffs were suspended for 90 days. In April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating compared with the previous month [8]. - Supply: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota for nickel ore provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but there are uncertainties in its timely increase, and policy risks remain. In April, China's nickel - iron production decreased slightly, while Indonesia's remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises decreased, and the output in April decreased month - on - month. In April 2025, the total output of domestic refined nickel was 36,450 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [8]. - Demand: In April, the demand for stainless steel recovered, but the domestic stainless steel inventory was still high, exceeding 1 million tons among 78 sample enterprises. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is on a downward trend, and the output of ternary materials rebounded from a low level in April [8]. - Inventory: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, as did the SHFE inventory. The social inventory of refined nickel was 42,791 tons, a decrease from the previous week [8]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (red - soil nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and end - use industries such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [10]. 3.3. Spot and Futures Market - Not provided with specific analysis content other than the mention of LME nickel premium/discount and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis charts 3.4. Supply Side - Nickel Ore: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly. In December 2024, imports were 36.5763 million tons, a 21.7% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, imports in January, February, and March were 91,190 tons, 114,600 tons, and 153,500 tons respectively [21]. - Nickel - Iron: In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron output was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the output was 159,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase in supply. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron output was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In April 2025, the output was 21,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease in supply. From January to March 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 929,000 tons, 909,000 tons, and 1.013 million tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.4%, 23.4%, and 60% respectively. In April 2025, the nickel - iron inventory was 19,300 tons [24][27]. - Refined Nickel: In 2025, with the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, the supply of pure nickel maintained an expanding trend. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 36,450 tons, and the apparent consumption in March 2025 was 29,837.1 tons. From January to March 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, and 219,000 tons respectively, showing a high - level decline month - on - month. From January to March 2025, China's exports were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, and 16,000 tons respectively [32][35]. 3.5. Intermediates - Wet - process Intermediates: According to MYSTEEL research statistics, the output of Indonesia's MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) in April 2025 was 31,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease [40]. - High - grade Nickel Matte: The output growth of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In March and April 2025, the output was 16,700 tons and 12,000 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are more planned production capacities for intermediates from 2025 to 2027 [44]. - Nickel Sulfate: In 2024, the output of nickel sulfate was 386,100 nickel tons, a 0.44% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the output was 31,393 tons, a month - on - month decrease. From January to March 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, and 18,380 tons respectively [47]. 3.6. Demand Side - Stainless Steel Demand: In 2024, the release of stainless steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 sample stainless steel enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the stainless steel output was 3.5025 million tons, returning to a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,058,355 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [51]. - Positive Electrode Material Demand: In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From the perspective of the power battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. It is expected that driven by the trade - in policy in 2025, the total terminal demand will still have inertia. In April 2025, the output of ternary positive electrode materials was 61,900 tons, continuing to rise from a low level [55]. 3.7. Inventory Side - Social and Bonded - area Inventory: As of May 9, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 42,791 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [60]. - Exchange Inventory: As of May 14, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 198,516 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease. As of May 15, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 23,344 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [64].