股指期货：驱动回潮，震荡格局依旧

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the stock index reached a阶段性 high and then declined. The stock market's rise was mainly due to the positive market sentiment after the trade agreement and the rally of large - financial stocks on Wednesday. However, unconfirmed rumors led to the index's fall. With the asset price back to the pre - tariff level in early April, there is a lack of upward drive, and concerns about weakening macro - expectations have increased [1]. - This week, the release of domestic economic data in April and LPR data is expected. Given the trade agreement in early May, April data has limited impact on future economic expectations. As the current price is at the upper edge of the late - March range, significant upward movement requires unexpected positive drivers. It is predicted that the market will continue to fluctuate widely, and there may be a slight adjustment without upward drive. But the mid - term trend of positive policies and bullish sentiment remains unchanged, and there will be buying power on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Strategy Suggestions - Short - term Strategy: For intraday trading, refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. - Trend Strategy: Adopt a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy. The core operating ranges for IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are 3770 - 3964 points, 2646 - 2768 points, 5552 - 5924 points, and 5869 - 6264 points respectively [4]. - Cross - variety Strategy: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]. 1. Spot Market Review - Global Index Performance: Last week, most global stock indexes rose. In the US, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose 3.41%, 5.27%, and 7.15% respectively. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX, and France's CAC40 rose 1.52%, 1.14%, and 1.85% respectively. In the Asia - Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.67% and 2.09% respectively [8]. - Domestic Index Performance: In China, most major indexes rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.76%. Among different indexes, the CSI 1000 rose 1.38%, the Shanghai 50 rose 1.22%, and the CSI 500 rose 0.52% [8]. - Industry Performance: Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indexes rose last week. In the CSI 300, the financial sector rose 1.98%, and the optional consumption sector rose 1.95%. In the CSI 500, the pharmaceutical sector rose 1.25%, and the financial real - estate sector rose 1.07% [9]. 2. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Futures Contract Performance: Last week, the IF futures contract had the largest increase, and the IH futures contract had the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined [11][13]. - Basis and Cross - variety Ratio: The report also presented the basis trends of stock index futures and the cross - variety ratios of different index futures [16]. 3. Index Valuation Tracking - The price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 14.13 times, 12.28 times, 10.76 times, 27.66 times, and 36.02 times respectively [17][18]. 4. Market Fundamentals Review - The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly - established equity - biased funds are presented. The capital interest rate declined last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [20].