Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Shanghai tin market fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 2%. On May 16, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 265,500 yuan/ton, with small fluctuations in futures prices and little change in basis [11]. - In April, refined tin production increased slightly month - on - month, and tin ore imports from January to March 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance to 17,500 tons, a 0.4% annual decrease [11]. - Demand recovered in March. The expansion of support for consumer goods replacement and AI technological breakthroughs strongly supported tin demand. Although trade disputes in April affected demand, recent improvements in macro - trade disputes led to continuous marginal improvements in supply and demand [11]. - With the mine end remaining tight and processing fees weak, profits will stay low under the background of mine - end interference [11]. - LME and SHFE inventories decreased slightly week - on - week, while social inventories increased slightly, which is unfavorable for inventory reduction [11]. - Considering the improvement in macro - trade disputes but the instability at the mine end, and the price having mostly reflected the supply - demand and macro - improvement expectations, short - term long positions are recommended. The weekly reference range is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options. Focus on the implementation of macro - measures, disturbances from Myanmar and Congo mines, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data verification [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week View and Strategy - Price Trend: Shanghai tin market fluctuated slightly last week with a 2% increase. Spot price on May 16, 2025, was 265,500 yuan/ton, with small futures price fluctuations and stable basis [11]. - Supply: April refined tin production increased slightly month - on - month. January - March 2025 tin ore imports dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin cut production guidance to 17,500 tons [11]. - Demand: Recovered in March. Support for consumer goods replacement and AI breakthroughs boosted demand. Trade disputes in April affected demand, but recent improvements led to marginal supply - demand improvements [11]. - Cost and Profit: Mine end is tight, processing fees are weak, and profits will remain low [11]. - Inventory: LME and SHFE inventories decreased slightly week - on - week, while social inventories increased slightly [11]. - Strategy: Short - term long positions. Weekly reference range is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Sell out - of - the - money put options. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided [14]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis charts, but no in - depth analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of May 15, 2025, SHFE inventory was 8,163 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease. As of May 14, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,745 tons, also a slight week - on - week decrease. As of May 9, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 10,201 tons, a slight week - on - week increase [26][29]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of May 15, 2025, Yunnan's concentrate processing fee was 11,000 yuan/ton, and Guangxi's was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees remained weak [33]. 3.6 Supply - In April 2025, refined tin production was 14,712 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. Domestic tin ore production in February was 4,926.35 tons, a seasonal decrease. In April 2025, tin enterprise capacity utilization was about 63.16%, a slight increase [37][41]. - New projects in China, Namibia, Peru, Australia, Morocco, and Myanmar are expected to be put into production from 2024 - 2026 [42]. 3.7 Demand - In March 2025, China's automobile production was 3.0445 million units, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. Electronic computer production was 50.194 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. PVC production in April 2025 was 1.955 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. Mobile electronic communication production in March 2025 was 136.7933 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [48][52]. - In March 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 33.7118 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Refrigerator production was 9.3835 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%. Washing machine production was 11.0021 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. Color TV production was 17.932 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [55][58]. - In March 2025, China's solar energy production was 78.444 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%. Integrated circuit production was 41.971999 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [61]. 3.8 Import and Export - From January to March 2025, China imported tin ore of 9,842, 8,745, and 8,322.5 tons respectively, imported tin of 2,334, 1,869, and 2,100 tons respectively, and exported refined tin of 2,131, 2,373, and 1,714.6 tons respectively [65]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table - The global tin supply - demand balance shows that from 2017 - 2025E, there have been periods of surplus and deficit. In 2025E, the global supply is expected to be 36.95 million tons, and the demand is expected to be 37.9 million tons, with a deficit of 0.95 million tons [67].
华联期货锡周报：供给恢复与宏观正影响，价格偏强-20250519
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-05-19 01:19