棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，寻找下方支撑，豆油：美国生柴政策波动，短期风险加剧

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the soybean oil market, highlighting that the US biodiesel policy fluctuations have intensified short - term risks. It also presents comprehensive data on the fundamentals of the oil and fat market, along with relevant macro and industry news [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures on the previous trading day were 7,984 yuan/ton, 7,754 yuan/ton, and 9,277 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily - disk price changes of - 0.80%, - 0.54%, and - 0.20%. The trading volume and open interest of these futures also showed different degrees of changes. For example, the trading volume of palm oil futures decreased by 154,250 lots to 514,650 lots, and the open interest increased by 10,473 lots to 397,913 lots [3]. - Spot Data: The spot prices of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong, first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong, and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi on the previous trading day were 8,550 yuan/ton, 8,160 yuan/ton, and 9,300 yuan/ton respectively, all with a price decrease of 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Basis Data: The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in South China was 566 yuan/ton, 406 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - Spread Data: The spreads between different contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures showed various changes. For example, the soybean - palm oil futures main - contract spread was - 230 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - EU Policy: The EU has not decided whether to classify Malaysia as a low - risk country under the EUDR. Malaysia, as a major producer of palm oil, may face EU trade restrictions [4][5]. - Indonesia's Palm Oil Policy: The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) urged the government to postpone the plan to raise the palm oil export special tax, warning that it could damage Indonesia's palm oil competitiveness [5]. - Palm Oil Supply Chain Issue: Small - scale palm oil producers account for nearly one - third of the world's crude palm oil production but receive a disproportionately small share of industry profits. Multinational palm oil purchasing companies can take more measures to address financial inequalities in the supply chain [5]. - Agricultural Crop Progress: In Brazil, 98% of the soybean planting area in Rio Grande do Sul has been harvested, with an average yield of 1,957 kg per hectare, 38.43% lower than the pre - sowing estimate. In Argentina, the soybean harvest rate as of May 15 was 66%. In Canada, the rapeseed planting rates in Saskatchewan and Alberta as of May 12 and May 13 were 29% and 23.7% respectively. The rapeseed export volume in Canada decreased by 29.5% to 130,000 tons in the week ending May 11, and the commercial inventory was 1.0951 million tons [6][7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8].