生猪：短期预期转弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term expectation for the pig industry has weakened. The current north - south fat pig price spread is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The continuous price exceeding expectations has led to continued inventory accumulation, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales has initially confirmed the inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the stock, and the far - end expectation has weakened. For the 1 - month contract, due to liquidity issues, although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month price spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. One should wait for the opportunity of liquidity transfer, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long - term, paying attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,190 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [3]. - Futures Prices: The price of pig 2507 is 13,405 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of pig 2509 is 13,660 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of pig 2511 is 13,420 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of pig 2507 is 5,531 lots, down 4,458 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,679 lots, up 95 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2509 is 28,345 lots, down 12,012 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 79,274 lots, up 1,713 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2511 is 5,399 lots, down 1,173 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 31,145 lots, up 868 lots from the previous day [3]. - Price Spreads: The basis of pig 2507 is 1,445 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of pig 2509 is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of pig 2511 is 1,430 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 255 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 9 - 11 spread of pigs is 240 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values for trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - Currently, the north - south fat pig price spread is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The continuous price exceeding expectations has led to continued inventory accumulation, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales has initially confirmed the inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the stock, and the far - end expectation has weakened. The 1 - month contract is affected by liquidity. Although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month price spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. One should wait for the opportunity of liquidity transfer, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long - term, paying attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5].