格林大华期货早盘提示-20250519

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector is "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the short - term macro - stimulus, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have returned to the previous oscillation range. The market is currently dominated by industry logic and expectations, and the market expectations are not optimistic. The supply of steel has increased recently, the export of steel in April continued to grow at a high rate, and the demand for construction steel and plate has shown a differentiation [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Report's Content Market Conditions - On Friday, the main contract of rebar 2510 closed at 3082, down 1.15%. The main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3226, down 0.95%. The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12925, down 0.54%. All closed down at night [1] Important Information - China's steel demand will remain in the peak platform range for a long time. It is predicted that the crude steel output will be 800 - 900 million tons in 2035 and about 800 million tons after 2050 [1] - In April 2025, China exported 1.59 million tons of steel bars, a year - on - year increase of 47.1%; from January to April, the cumulative export was 5.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.1% [1] - From January to April, the national water conservancy construction investment reached 294.36 billion yuan, and the water conservancy investment scale remained at a high level [1] - Russia's government has introduced a new shipbuilding industry development strategy, planning to build more than 1634 ships by 2036 and another 2637 ships by 2050 [1] - As of this week, the capacity utilization rate of independent electric furnace enterprises in the country was 56.57%, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 percentage points, basically the same as the same period last year [1] - From January to April 2025, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 15.32 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%; the new order volume was 30.69 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. As of the end of April, the order - on - hand volume was 229.78 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.6% [1] Market Logic - On Friday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated, and the trading volume was average. The impact of macro - factors on the market has weakened, and the market has returned to industry logic and expectations. The fundamentals show that last week, the output and apparent demand of rebar increased, and the inventory decreased. The output and inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased, and the apparent demand increased. Recently, the output of electric furnaces has increased significantly, and the supply of steel has increased. The export of steel in April continued to grow at a high rate, and after the relaxation of Sino - US tariffs, the export is expected to perform well. The ship orders have continued to grow at a high rate, and the demand for medium and heavy plates is good. There is a differentiation in the demand for construction steel and plate [1] Trading Strategy - Wait for the direction to become clearer or conduct short - term operations [1]