合成橡胶：上方空间收窄

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The upside space for synthetic rubber has narrowed. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber are supported, but the upside space is limited, and it is expected to show a pattern of oscillation with support. The main reason for the current futures price being far below the static valuation of the butadiene rubber fundamentals is the rapid contraction of the NR - BR spread. If the substitution demand weakens in the future, the upward driving force of butadiene rubber and butadiene may significantly decrease, so the futures market is trading weak expectations in advance at the valuation level. [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,160 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 7,375 lots to 134,239 lots, the open interest decreased by 2,296 lots to 20,487 lots, and the trading volume increased by 41,690 ten thousand yuan to 822,659 ten thousand yuan. [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract increased by 50 to 390; the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 (private) decreased by 12,340 to - 12,160. The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) decreased by 50, 0, and 50 respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) decreased by 50 to 12,550 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502 and 1712) remained unchanged. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 to 10,850 yuan/ton and 11,350 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Fundamentals: The butadiene operating rate decreased by 1.05 percentage points to 78.4519%. The theoretical full - cost of butadiene remained unchanged at 13,933 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene remained unchanged at - 1,233 yuan/ton. [1] 2. Industry News - As of May 14, 2025 (week 20), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,100 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons or 4.26% compared with the previous period. The price of raw material butadiene continued to rise, the production cost of butadiene rubber increased significantly, and with the positive macro news, the spot market price turned to a large premium, and the inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises decreased to varying degrees. [1] - The latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,870 tons, a significant decrease of 6,030 tons compared with the previous period. Due to limited ship arrivals and normal consumption of downstream raw material inventory, the inventory of sample ports decreased significantly. [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the interval [-2, 2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish. [3]