Huachuang Securities·2025-05-19 00:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The easing of tariff conflicts between China and the US has led to a replenishment effect, with a notable increase in prices for butadiene (+17.8%), PX (+12.0%), and PTA (+8.5%) [4][12] - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a dual bottom in profitability and valuation, with the ROE-PB for 2024 at 6.19% and 1.77, and a recovery in Q1 2025 to 7.55% and 1.85 [4][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of new materials and self-sufficient opportunities in the growth sectors for Q2 and Q3, particularly in the context of supply chain resilience and market dynamics [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report highlights a 90-day window for replenishment in trade following tariff reductions, with a significant rise in foreign trade inquiries and shipping prices [12] - The basic chemical industry index as of May 18 is 79.16, reflecting a 0.95% increase week-on-week but a 21.44% decrease year-on-year [12][13] - The report suggests focusing on growth opportunities in new materials and self-sufficient sectors, particularly in the context of ongoing supply chain challenges and market volatility [4][12] Price and Price Difference Changes - The report notes that the price percentile for the chemical industry is at 21.88% over the past decade, with a slight increase of 0.37% week-on-week [12] - The price differences in the industry are at a percentile of 0.78%, indicating a decrease of 0.88% week-on-week [12] Tracking of Sub-sectors - The report tracks various sub-sectors, including tire materials, agricultural chemicals, and coal chemicals, highlighting price fluctuations and market dynamics [6] - Specific attention is given to the coal chemical sector in Xinjiang, which is expected to see significant investment and development opportunities [19][20] Trading Data - The report provides detailed trading data, including price increases for butadiene, PX, and PTA, as well as decreases for other chemicals like ethylenediamine and phosphorous [13][15] - It also highlights the highest operating rates for certain products, indicating strong demand and production capabilities in specific areas [13]