宏观利好兑现，铜价冲高回落

Report Overview - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to the Sino-US trade truce boosting the market, with both sides suspending and canceling most tariff measures. Subsequently, the market digested the optimistic sentiment, and there was uncertainty about the tariff policy after 90 days. The Fed maintained a hawkish stance, leading to concerns about US stagflation risks and global supply chain disruptions affecting both developed and developing economies, causing downward pressure on exports and economic slowdown. Domestically, in April, the social financing structure favored government bonds, but the negative scissors gap widened, and the central bank's financial incremental policies released positive sentiment. Fundamentally, the spot TC remained at a negative value of -$40, global inventories rebounded from a low level, the Yangshan copper warehouse receipt premium was high, and the near-month B structure of the futures market narrowed [2][7]. - Overall, the market has digested the positive sentiment of the Sino-US truce and is worried that tariff hikes and trade policy uncertainties will continue to disrupt the global supply chain, dragging down the global economic growth outlook. Domestically, the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut have been implemented, and social financing in April maintained stable growth. Fundamentally, the production capacity of major overseas mines is sustainable, the tight balance cycle of refined copper in China is shifting to marginal relaxation, and social inventories are rebounding from a low level. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high-level volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the global trade pattern [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - Price Changes: From May 9 to May 16, LME copper rose by $1.00 to $9440.00 per ton, a 0.01% increase; COMEX copper fell by 6.25 cents to 459.15 cents per pound, a 1.34% decrease; SHFE copper rose by 690 yuan to 78140 yuan per ton, an 0.89% increase; international copper rose by 600 yuan to 69350 yuan per ton, an 0.87% increase. The Shanghai-London ratio rose from 8.21 to 8.28. The LME spot premium dropped by $17.74 to $31.45 per ton, a 36.06% decrease, and the Shanghai spot premium increased by 365 yuan to 445 yuan per ton [3]. - Inventory Changes: As of May 16, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 528,663 tons, with a net increase of 5451 tons or 1.04% compared to May 9. Specifically, LME copper inventory decreased by 12,400 tons to 179,375 tons, a 6.47% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 9414 short tons to 169,664 short tons, a 5.87% increase; SHFE inventory increased by 27,437 tons to 108,124 tons, a 34.00% increase; Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 71,500 tons, a 20.99% decrease [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The Sino-US economic and trade talks issued a joint statement to relieve pressure on the global economy. Both countries maintained a relatively low tariff of 10%, and the US suspended the additional 24% tariff on China for 90 days. China also suspended or canceled non - tariff counter - measures against the US. The UN report shows that although the global tariff war is easing, tariff hikes and trade policy uncertainties continue to disrupt the supply chain, pushing up production costs and slowing down corporate investment. It is expected that the global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.4% in 2025. Domestically, China's social financing increment in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan. The social financing scale stock reached 424 trillion yuan at the end of April, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%, indicating an improvement in the economic credit structure [8]. - Supply - demand aspect: This week, the spot TC remained at -$43 per ton. The Antamina copper mine in Peru had a temporary shutdown due to a mine accident, and the President of Panama refused to sign a new agreement with First Quantum for the Cobre Panama project, leading to a long - term tight supply at the global mine end. In terms of refined copper, the domestic refined copper capacity utilization rate was generally high. In mid - May, imported supplies began to decline, and the blockage at some African ports was resolved. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects started one after another, the operating rate of cable enterprises in April rebounded to 81.3%, driving the operating rate of refined copper rod production back to 75%. The domestic social inventory rebounded to 130,000 tons, and the near - month B structure in the domestic market narrowed after the inventory bottomed out and rebounded [9]. 3.3 Industry News - Production Reports: Glencore's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 168,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30%. MMG's copper production (electrolytic copper + copper concentrate) in the first quarter was 118,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 76%. MMG raised its 2025 production guidance to 466,000 - 522,000 tons [11][12]. - Project News: First Quantum's closed Panama copper mine, if still in operation, would contribute over $1.7 billion to Panama's economy. However, the President of Panama refused to provide a new mining contract [13]. - Processing Fee: According to Mysteel research, the processing fee for 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China last week rose to 750 - 950 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 200 yuan per ton. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in China will continue to recover in late May [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, Shanghai Exchange and bonded area inventory, etc., to visually display the market situation of copper [15][18][23].