Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to close at 1051 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.12%; the September bean meal contract remained flat; the South China bean meal spot price dropped 80 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.55%; the September rapeseed meal contract fell 38 to 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.49%; and the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 60 to 2370 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.47% [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans first rose and then fell. The May USDA report was bullish, and the extension of the clean fuel tax credit boosted prices. However, the expected U.S. biodiesel mandatory blending target was much lower than expected, and the sharp decline in U.S. soybean oil drove soybeans down. The U.S. soybean sowing maintained a relatively fast pace, and the weather conditions were good. The oil mill operating rate rebounded, the expected supply of bean meal increased, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. In the weak reality pattern, the Dalian bean meal fluctuated weakly [4][7]. - The weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, and the sowing season may proceed smoothly. Recently, the U.S. biodiesel policy has high uncertainty, which intensifies the market volatility. There is no theme to drive the market, and U.S. soybeans are likely to fluctuate. In China, the oil mill operating rate has rebounded, the supply is gradually recovering, the inventories of oil mills and feed enterprises have both increased, the trading demand declined last week, and the spot price is still under pressure. Since the rapeseed meal inventory is still available, as the bean meal spot price falls, the substitution demand increases, and rapeseed meal is still under short - term pressure. Overall, both bean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate weakly [4][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to 1051 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.12%. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans increased by 1 to 434 dollars per ton, a rise of 0.23%, and that of U.S. Gulf soybeans increased by 4 to 457 dollars per ton, a rise of 0.88%. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased by 8.08 to 83.74 yuan per ton. The DCE bean meal contract remained flat at 2899 yuan per ton. The CZCE rapeseed meal contract fell 38 to 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.49%. The bean - rapeseed meal price difference increased by 38 to 386 yuan per ton. The East China spot price dropped 200 to 3000 yuan per ton, a decline of 6.25%, and the South China spot price dropped 80 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.55%. The South China spot - futures price difference dropped 80 to 161 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The May USDA report showed that in the 2024/2025 season, U.S. soybean export demand was raised by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory dropped to 350 million bushels. For the 2025/2026 new - season U.S. soybean balance sheet, the yield per acre was 52.5 bushels, the output was 4.34 billion bushels, which was in line with expectations. In terms of demand, the crushing demand increased to 2.49 billion bushels, the export demand decreased to 1.815 billion bushels, and the ending inventory dropped to 295 million bushels. The report was generally bullish [8]. - As of the week of May 11, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, the previous week's 30%, and last year's 34%, with a five - year average of 37%. The emergence rate was 17%, compared with 7% in the previous week, 15% last year, and a five - year average of 11%. As of the week of May 6, about 15% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than last year's 11%. The weather forecast shows that the northern U.S. soybean - producing areas may have more precipitation, which may slow down the sowing progress, but the weather conditions in other areas are good, which is conducive to maintaining a relatively fast sowing pace [8]. - As of the week of May 8, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market season increased by 282,000 tons to 377,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 48 million tons, with a sales progress of 95.3%, higher than last year's 92.1%. China did not purchase U.S. soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current season was 22.48 million tons [9]. - The NOPA crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean oil inventory in April 2025 was 1.527 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.412 billion pounds and the March 2025 level of 1.498 billion pounds. The U.S. soybean crushing volume in April 2025 was 190.226 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 184.642 million bushels and lower than the March 2025 level of 194.551 million bushels [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was 1.78 dollars per bushel, up from 1.75 dollars per bushel the previous week. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 47.98 cents per pound, down from 49.03 cents per pound the previous week. The price of 48% protein bean meal in Illinois soybean processing plants was 290.38 dollars per short - ton, up from 287.08 dollars per short - ton the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.63 dollars per bushel, down from 10.71 dollars per bushel the previous week [10]. - Conab data showed that as of the week of May 10, 2025, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 98.5%, higher than the previous week's 97.7%, last year's 95.6%, and the five - year average of 97.6%. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in May were expected to reach 14.27 million tons, higher than last year's 13.47 million tons [10]. - The Buenos Aires Exchange reported that the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 64.9%, up from 44.9% the previous week, and the harvesting work accelerated. In the next 15 days, the weather in the producing areas will be relatively dry, which is conducive to the progress of harvesting [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.3491 million tons, an increase of 602,700 tons from the previous week and 1.1634 million tons from the same period last year. The bean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 458,000 tons from the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 4.7368 million tons, an increase of 436,000 tons from the previous week and 221,900 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 6.234 million tons, an increase of 702,000 tons from the previous week and 620,200 tons from the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national bean meal was 78,100 tons, including 40,600 tons of spot trading and 37,500 tons of forward trading. The previous week's daily average total trading volume was 264,600 tons. The daily average pick - up volume of bean meal was 157,000 tons, up from 151,000 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9055 million tons, up from 1.846 million tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises were 5.14 days, up from 4.45 days the previous week [11]. Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat (Secex) data showed that Brazil exported 4,766,710.61 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of May, with a daily average export volume of 794,451.77 tons, a 24% increase compared with the daily average export volume of 639,843.92 tons in May last year. The total export volume in May last year was 13,436,722.31 tons [13]. - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from May 5 - 9 was 612.80 reais per ton, down from 623.09 reais per ton the previous week. The bean meal price in that week was 1690.10 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5735.94 reais per ton [13]. - The U.S. House of Representatives Tax Committee proposed to extend the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy to December 31, 2031, and cancel the impact of indirect land - use change (ILUC) on tax - credit assessment, which may significantly reduce the compliance costs of biofuel producers. Biodiesel producers using soybean oil as raw materials are expected to be the main beneficiaries [13]. - If the U.S. and China fail to reach a new trade agreement, U.S. soybean exports may decline by 20%, and the price will plummet. The U.S. soybean export volume may drop from the initial 1.865 billion bushels to 1.5 billion bushels, and the farm price may drop to 9.10 dollars per bushel in the 2025/2026 season, compared with the USDA's forecast of 10.25 dollars per bushel [14]. - CONAB's May forecast data showed that the expected output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 168.3418 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6205 million tons (14%) and a month - on - month increase of 472,000 tons (0.3%). The expected sowing area was 47.6127 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.4631 million hectares (3.2%) and a month - on - month increase of 97,000 hectares (0.2%). The expected yield per hectare was 3.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 334.7 kilograms (10.5%) and a month - on - month increase of 2.7 kilograms (0.1%) [15]. - A commodity research report showed that Australia's rapeseed output in the 2025/2026 season was expected to be 6.2 million tons, in line with the USDA's monthly supply - and - demand report. The forecast range was between 5.7 - 6.3 million tons. Most areas in Australia were dry in the past two weeks. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed - producing areas in New South Wales are expected to receive above - average rainfall, while other areas in Australia will remain dry until the end of the month. The seasonal weather model shows that Australia's rainfall and temperature in June will be normal, which may relieve the current drought and help the early growth of crops [16]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate, regional crushing profit, bean meal main contract trend, spot - futures price difference of bean meal, management fund CBOT net position, regional bean meal spot price, bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, U.S. soybean - producing area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean harvesting progress, U.S. soybean cumulative export sales volume to the world, U.S. soybean weekly net sales volume, U.S. soybean cumulative sales volume to China, U.S. soybean weekly export volume, U.S. oil mill crushing profit, bean meal weekly average pick - up volume, bean meal weekly average trading volume, port soybean inventory, oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill weekly crushing volume, oil mill crushing operating rate, oil mill bean meal inventory, and feed enterprise bean meal inventory days [17][18][19][22][24][26][28][30][32][34][38][40][42][43][45][47][49][51][52][53].
供应逐步恢复，连粕或弱势震荡
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-19 01:51