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铁合金加速减产,等待煤价企稳
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-05-19 01:51

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Iron Alloy Accelerates Production Cuts, Awaiting Coal Price Stabilization - Guoxin Futures Iron Alloy Weekly Report" [2] - Report date: May 18, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - For manganese silicon, last week both the futures and spot prices rose by 100 yuan/ton with the basis unchanged. The price is low and producers' profits are poor. Production decreased further, with the supply - demand gap emerging in the industry chain. It's recommended to go long with a light position, awaiting coal price stabilization [47]. - For ferrosilicon, last week the futures price rose while the spot price remained flat, and the basis slightly narrowed. The supply side saw a sharp production cut, and the supply - demand gap widened with major manufacturers showing a clear intention to maintain prices. It's also recommended to go long with a light position [47]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Macro - news: The "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" was released, with both sides agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. China's 1 - 4 social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. The US initial jobless claims were 229,000, in line with market expectations. China's auto production and sales exceeded 10 million in the first 4 months, with new - energy vehicles growing rapidly. The retail sales of white goods showed different trends online and offline in April [5]. - Manganese silicon: The futures and spot prices rose last week. The basis had different year - on - year, 30 - day, and weekly changes in different regions. The price of manganese ore also had corresponding changes [8]. - Ferrosilicon: Information about its futures price increase, spot price stability, and basis change was provided, along with data on the change of main - producing area electricity prices [12][18]. 2. Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Overview - Manganese ore: Included information on manganese ore prices, import volume, and inventory over the years [21][24][25]. - Manganese silicon: Covered profit estimation, production volume in different time periods, and the relationship with steel production [27][29][33]. 3. Ferrosilicon Industry Chain Overview - Ferrosilicon: Included profit estimation, production volume in different time periods, and the relationship with steel production [36][39][44]. 4. Summary and Future Outlook - Manganese silicon: The futures and spot prices rose last week, production decreased, and it's recommended to go long with a light position awaiting coal price stabilization [47]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price rose, the spot price was flat, production cut sharply, and it's recommended to go long with a light position [47].