宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250519

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market presents a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, and the ore price continues to fluctuate. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2509 are respectively: short - term is fluctuating, medium - term is fluctuating, and intraday is weakly fluctuating. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has changed. The high - level ore demand has slightly declined, providing some support for the ore price, but the concern of reaching the peak has materialized with a weak positive effect. The port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments remain high, and domestic ore production is also active, resulting in a large supply pressure. Supported by the logic of discount repair, the ore price has rebounded from the low level, but the demand is approaching the peak and the supply remains high, so the fundamental expectation is weakening [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Regarding iron ore 2509, the short - term trend within a week is fluctuating, the medium - term trend from two weeks to one month is fluctuating, and the intraday trend is weakly fluctuating. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, and the core logic is the situation of strong reality and weak expectation with the ore price continuing to fluctuate [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has changed. The high - level demand has slightly declined, which still supports the ore price, but the concern of reaching the peak has been realized with a weak positive effect. The port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are at a high level, and domestic ore production is also active, leading to large supply pressure. Supported by the discount repair logic, the ore price has rebounded from the low level. However, the demand is approaching the peak and the supply remains high, so the fundamental expectation is weakening, and the iron - water change should be monitored [2].