宏观周报（5月第3周）：中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明超预期-20250519

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The joint statement from the China-US Geneva trade talks exceeded expectations, with a 24% tariff on certain goods suspended for 90 days, but the negotiation challenges remain significant[2][12]. - April economic data showed weakness across various indicators, including a 20.9% year-on-year decline in exports to the US, significantly down from a previous increase of 8.9%[5][16]. - The overall market saw a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.76% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.52%[11]. Group 2: Financial Market Insights - The bond market experienced an overall rise in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 5 basis points, reflecting a limited downward space for long-term rates[11][20]. - April's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, below the expected 1.26 trillion yuan, indicating weaker credit demand amid external pressures[20][21]. - The US stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones rising by 3.41% and the S&P 500 by 5.27%, driven by improved risk appetite following the trade talks[11][19]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Implications - The Chinese government is expected to continue supporting infrastructure projects, which may provide some stability to the economy despite weak data[5][11]. - The Federal Reserve's potential for rate cuts in 2025 remains uncertain, with inflation pressures expected to ease but still influenced by existing tariffs[19][20]. - The market's short-term outlook is cautious, with limited elasticity due to the uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations and economic fundamentals[5][17].