宝城期货资讯早班车-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic data shows a mixed picture, with some indicators stable and others showing fluctuations. For example, GDP growth remained stable in Q1 2025, while manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined in April [1]. - The commodity market has various developments, including adjustments in oil prices, potential supply - demand changes in metals, and progress in energy and agricultural sectors [2][3][6][7]. - In the financial market, there are significant changes in bond yields, exchange rates, and stock market trends, influenced by factors such as monetary policy, trade policies, and corporate events [19][24][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous quarter but slightly higher than the same period last year [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in April 2025 dropped to 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month and 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: Business activity in April 2025 was 50.4%, lower than 50.8% in the previous month and 51.2% in the same period last year [1]. - Social financing scale increment in April 2025 was significantly lower than the previous month, at - 658 billion yuan compared to 5896.1 billion yuan in March [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to be cut by about 230 yuan/ton on May 19, 2025, the fifth decrease this year [2]. - After the mutual tariff cuts between China and the US, freight volume between the two countries has recovered and increased, and US merchants are seeking new cooperation in China [2][11]. - Anti - dumping duties will be imposed on imported copolymerized polyoxymethylene from the US, the EU, Taiwan region, and Japan starting from May 19, 2025 [2]. 3.2.2 Metal - The London Metal Exchange plans to set a position limit to curb excessive speculation [3]. - With the upcoming US copper and aluminum tariffs, the US is experiencing a rush to import copper, with imports surging from about 70,000 tons per month to 500,000 tons per month [3]. - Morgan Stanley believes that the global copper and aluminum markets will be in a state of supply - demand balance to oversupply in 2025 [3]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Hyundai Steel will close its rebar factory in Incheon, South Korea, in April [4]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's first offshore CCUS well has been drilled in the Enping 15 - 1 platform in the South China Sea, with the potential to inject over 1 million tons of carbon dioxide into the seabed in 10 years and increase oil production by 200,000 tons [6]. - The construction of the 2 - gigawatt CNGD Delingha solar - thermal storage integrated project in Qinghai is in full swing [6]. - As of the end of February 2025, China's non - fossil energy power generation capacity reached 2 billion kilowatts for the first time, accounting for 58.8% of the total power generation capacity [6]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The spring sowing of grain in China has covered over 35 million mu, with progress similar to last year. Early rice seedlings are over half - grown, and nearly 10% has been transplanted [7]. - In 2024, the global coffee price soared by 38.8%, and Brazil's domestic coffee price increased by nearly 40%, affecting the cooperation model between international buyers and Brazilian exporters [7]. - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the number of pigs and piglets in the US is 74.512 million [7]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank net - withdrew 475.1 billion yuan from the open market last week, and 486 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature this week [9]. - On May 16, the central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 2.95 billion yuan [9]. 3.3.2 Key News - The National Bureau of Statistics will release April economic data on Monday, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the economic situation [10]. - Financial regulators have expressed support for Beijing's development in the financial sector, including promoting technology finance and strengthening the function of the national financial management center [10]. - The pilot of spot - housing sales is being promoted, but the timing for full implementation is not yet mature [10][11]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - Treasury bond futures declined slightly, and most bond yields increased. The overnight and 7 - day repurchase rates for deposit - taking institutions rose significantly [19]. - The issuance of two batches of technological innovation bonds by New Hope Group and Tongwei Co., Ltd. was successful, with issuance scales of 500 million yuan each [14]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2037 on May 16, up 95 points from the previous trading day, and rose 424 points last week [24]. - The US dollar index rose 0.15% in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies declined [24]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CICC believes that after the Sino - US Geneva talks, bilateral tariff cuts will reduce the risk of a US economic recession and make the Fed more concerned about inflation [26]. - Guosheng Fixed - Income argues that credit demand is still bottoming out in April, and the loose monetary policy environment may continue [26]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The Hong Kong stock market has been performing well this year, and a major new energy company will list on the HKEX on May 20, making Hong Kong the world's leading IPO market in terms of fundraising [29]. - Since May, the A - share market has seen increasing institutional research, with a focus on high - end manufacturing, semiconductors, and healthcare [29]. - CITIC Construction Investment maintains a range - bound view of the A - share market but raises the oscillation center to near the half - year line [30].