五矿期货早报有色金属-20250519

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the有色金属 market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, economic data, and industry - specific supply - demand dynamics. Short - term price movements are subject to market sentiment, while medium - term trends are more driven by fundamental factors like supply and demand, and inventory levels [1][3][4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper slightly increased by 0.01% to $9440/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 77,670 yuan/ton. Three - exchange inventories increased by 24,000 tons. The short - term copper price may fluctuate and adjust, with the SHFE copper main contract expected to trade between 76,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between $9250 - 9550/ton [1]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose last week. LME aluminum increased by 2.78% to $2484/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,190 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline. The aluminum price has strong support but limited upside due to seasonal weak consumption. It is recommended to focus on inter - month positive spreads. The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to trade between 19,800 - 20,400 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between $2430 - 2530/ton [3]. Lead - Lead prices rose and then fell last week. The SHFE lead index fell 0.51% to 16,885 yuan/ton. The mid - term SHFE lead index is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,800 yuan, and the short - term price shows a relatively strong oscillation [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices rose and then fell last week. The SHFE zinc index fell 0.51% to 22,379 yuan/ton. The potential shutdown of a Russian lead - zinc mine may boost sentiment, but there is still a risk of price decline in the medium term as zinc concentrate supply is expected to be in surplus and inventories may accumulate [6]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated last week. Supply is currently tight but may loosen. If downstream demand remains weak, the tin price may decline. The short - term domestic main contract is expected to trade between 260,000 - 320,000 yuan, and LME tin between $34,000 - 39,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated within a range last week. The overall fundamentals are weak. The refined nickel is expected to return to the inventory accumulation trend, leading to a further price decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the LME nickel 0 - 3 month spread and consider short - selling at high prices. The short - term SHFE nickel main contract is expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M between $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot price of lithium carbonate declined last week. The market is in a weak state, and the price may continue to test the industry's acceptance level. The main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to trade between 63,400 - 65,200 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - The alumina index fell on May 16. Spot prices in some regions rose. Due to uncertainties in the ore supply and supply - side disruptions, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and positive spreads can be held. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 2800 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,965 yuan/ton on Friday. Spot prices were stable with some slight increases. Cost support is strengthening, but terminal demand is cautious. The market may oscillate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to raw material trends and inventory changes [15].