商品期货早班车-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3]. - Trade war impacts are gradually weakening, but uncertainties still exist, affecting market sentiment and price trends [1][4][5]. - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of supply - demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and investment strategies [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: Market showed Friday oscillations, with international gold priced in London nearly closing at $3200/ounce. Suggested to build long positions opportunistically due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - Silver: Recommended to short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - Copper: Expected to trade in a range due to short - term risk preference decline, weak dollar, and tight spot market, despite inventory accumulation [2]. - Aluminum: Likely to maintain a sideways movement in the short term as downstream consumption weakens, and it's advised to wait and see [2]. - Alumina: Prices are expected to be strong until an agreement is reached between mining companies and the Guinea government, and a light - position long strategy is recommended [3]. - Industrial Silicon: With weak fundamentals and limited downward momentum, it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: Suggested to hold short positions or short on rebounds as the market is in a surplus and the bearish sentiment is strong [3]. - Polysilicon: Expected to bottom - out and oscillate in the short term, and it's recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting the 07 contract later [3]. - Tin: Forecasted to trade in a range due to weak risk preference and a weak dollar [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: Futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations, and it's recommended to close short positions and consider certain arbitrage strategies [4]. - Iron Ore: Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it's advised to close short positions and try long positions on the 2509 contract [4]. - Coking Coal: It's recommended to wait and see as the market is in a relatively balanced state [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: U.S. soybeans are expected to be range - bound, and domestic soybeans are short - term weak and mid - term follow the international market [5]. - Corn: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate as the spot market is weak and trade conditions ease [5]. - Sugar: The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term is expected to rebound while the long - term is bearish [6]. - Cotton: It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - Palm Oil: In a seasonal weak phase, and later attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [6]. - Eggs: Futures prices are expected to oscillate as supply is high and demand is weak with cost support [6]. - Hogs: Futures prices are expected to decline as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [6]. - Apples: Prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but attention should be paid to fruit consumption and weather conditions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [8]. - PTA: PX and PTA are in a de - stocking state, and it's recommended to take profit on long - short spreads and be cautious with single - side trading [8]. - Rubber: Bearish sentiment is strong, and it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - Glass: Prices are expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - PP: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [9]. - MEG: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but long positions should be taken with caution due to high valuation [9]. - Crude Oil: Recommended as a short - side allocation due to high supply pressure and potential negative factors [9]. - Styrene: Expected to be strong in the short term, and a long - short spread strategy is recommended [10]. - Soda Ash: It's recommended to close short positions gradually and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [10]. - Caustic Soda: Expected to stop falling and stabilize, waiting for non - aluminum downstream demand to recover [10]. Shipping - European Line Container Shipping: The 06 contract should be chased with caution, and an 8 - 10 long - short spread strategy is recommended [11].