Report Overview - Report period: May 19 - 23, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures [2] Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Industrial silicon futures prices maintain a weak trend due to poor supply - demand fundamentals, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Industrial silicon futures prices maintain a weak trend [7] - Trend logic: Affected by poor supply - demand fundamentals, prices continue to decline. Weak demand in the photovoltaic industry, cautious downstream procurement, low trading volume in the silicone market, and limited demand from aluminum alloy manufacturers [7] - Strategy recommendation: Wait and see due to the existing supply - demand contradiction in the industrial silicon market [8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Maintain a weak trend, recommend waiting and seeing [11] - This week's strategy: Maintain a weak trend, recommend waiting and seeing [11] 3.3 Related Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. The current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17][21][23] Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Lithium carbonate futures prices operate weakly in a volatile manner. There is a possibility of continuous decline, and radical investors can consider buying put options [28][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Lithium carbonate futures prices operate weakly in a volatile manner [28] - Trend logic: The spot price of lithium carbonate fell last week. Some integrated production enterprises face cost inversion. Downstream enterprises mainly stock up for rigid needs and are highly watchful. The overall market has oversupply. However, recent Sino - US tariff adjustments may increase the export expectation of energy - storage batteries and long - term demand for lithium carbonate. Technically, the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is basically in a downward channel [29] - Strategy recommendation: Wait and see due to the pessimistic market sentiment and the possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices [29] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: There is a possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices. Radical investors can consider buying put options [33] - This week's strategy: There is a possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices. Radical investors can consider buying put options [34] 3.3 Related Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [36] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. The current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [39][44]
工业硅、碳酸锂期货品种周报-20250519
Chang Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-19 02:15