国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250519

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - Palm Oil: Pressure is released periodically, and it is looking for support at lower levels [2]. - Soybean Oil: Fluctuations in US biodiesel policy have intensified short - term risks [2][5]. - Soybean Meal: There is no driving force, and the market is oscillating [2][13]. - Soybean: The spot market is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures market is slightly stronger and oscillating [2][13]. - Corn: It is running in an oscillating pattern [2][16]. - Sugar: It is running weakly [2][21]. - Cotton: It fluctuates following market sentiment [2][25]. - Eggs: They are in an oscillating adjustment phase [2][30]. - Pigs: Short - term expectations have weakened [2][32]. - Peanuts: They are oscillating strongly [2][37]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Fundamental Data - Palm oil's day - session closing price was 7,984 yuan/ton with a - 0.80% change, and night - session closing price was 8,022 yuan/ton with a 0.48% change. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,754 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% change, and night - session closing price was 7,786 yuan/ton with a 0.41% change [6]. Macro and Industry News - EU is still discussing whether to classify Malaysia as a low - risk country under the EUDR, which may lead to trade restrictions on Malaysian palm oil. GAPKI urged the Indonesian government to postpone the plan to raise palm oil export special tax. Small - scale palm oil producers face financial inequality issues [7][8]. 2. Soybean Meal and Soybean Fundamental Data - DCE soybean 2507's day - session closing price was 4168 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change, and night - session closing price was 4185 yuan/ton with a + 0.48% change. DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 2899 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change, and night - session closing price was 2896 yuan/ton with a - 0.21% change [13]. Macro and Industry News - CBOT soybeans were fluctuating, affected by South American soybean harvests, US - China trade relations, and US weather conditions. US soybeans lack price competitiveness under current tariffs, and Brazil's record - high soybean harvest dominates the global export market [15]. 3. Corn Fundamental Data - C2507's day - session closing price was 2,335 yuan/ton with a - 0.43% change, and night - session closing price was 2,333 yuan/ton with a - 0.09% change. C2509's day - session closing price was 2,351 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% change, and night - session closing price was 2,348 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% change [17]. Macro and Industry News - There were price differences in corn collection and sales in different regions, and the price of imported grains such as sorghum and barley was also reported [18]. 4. Sugar Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price was 17.56 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6170 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5855 yuan/ton [21]. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress was slower year - on - year, USDA expected Brazil's production to increase by 2% in the 25/26 season, India's 24/25 season sugar production was 2569 tons by the end of April, and Brazil's April exports decreased by 18% year - on - year [21]. 5. Cotton Fundamental Data - CF2509's day - session closing price was 13,390 yuan/ton with a - 0.19% change, and night - session closing price was 13380 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change. ICE US cotton 07's closing price was 65.14 cents/pound with a - 0.53% change [25]. Macro and Industry News - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was light, the cotton yarn market had some improvements but the profit situation deteriorated, and ICE cotton lacked upward - driving force due to good weather in US cotton - growing areas [26][27]. 6. Eggs Fundamental Data - Egg 2507's closing price was 2,981 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.06% change, and Egg 2509's closing price was 3,788 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.21% change [30]. Macro and Industry News - No macro and industry news was provided for eggs. 7. Pigs Fundamental Data - Henan's spot price was 14850 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 14350 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 15190 yuan/ton. Futures prices of different contracts also showed certain changes [34]. Market Logic - The price spread between fat and lean pigs in the north and south was inverted, group - farm piglet sales decreased, and short - term expectations weakened. The 11 - 1 reverse spread could be considered for medium - and long - term layout [36]. 8. Peanuts Fundamental Data - The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,300 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase, and the price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase. PK510's closing price was 8,232 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change [37]. Spot Market Focus - In different peanut - producing areas, the supply from farmers was limited, and the purchasing intention of downstream customers improved. Most areas had a strong price trend [38].