国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities in the energy - chemical industry have diverse trends. Some are in an upward trend, some are in a downward trend, and others are in a volatile state. For example, PX, PTA, and MEG are relatively strong, while rubber and PVC are under pressure in the later stage [4][13][68]. - The macro - environment, such as the Sino - US phased reconciliation, has a certain impact on the market sentiment, but the fundamentals of supply and demand still play a decisive role in the long - term trend of each commodity [22][69]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - PX: In a high - level volatile market with a strong upward trend. The supply is tightened due to the unexpected load reduction of some refineries, and the demand remains strong. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA and pay attention to the regression of the PX - MX spread [9]. - PTA: The unilateral trend is still strong, and the position for compressing PTA processing fees should be held. The monthly spread is still a good opportunity to go long at low levels. The supply and demand are both increasing, but it is still in a de - stocking pattern [10]. - MEG: Before delivery, the spot supply and demand are strong, and the unilateral price still has upward space. The unexpected shutdown and maintenance of some plants have intensified the tight balance of supply and demand [11]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is in a volatile and weakening state. The semi - steel tire industry has high inventory, low capacity utilization rate, and weak demand, which drags down the rubber market [13][17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - The upward space of synthetic rubber is narrowing. Although the fundamentals have support, the price is suppressed by the overall rubber sector. It is expected to show a volatile and supported pattern [18][21]. 3.4 LLDPE - In a medium - term volatile market. The Sino - US phased reconciliation has a positive impact on sentiment, but the supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The trend still has pressure, but attention should be paid to the change in the spread between HDPE and linear [22][23]. 3.5 PP - The price has a small decline, and the trading volume is average. The PP futures' decline drags down the spot market atmosphere, and the downstream's acceptance of high - price resources is low [26][27]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - In a short - term volatile state, and there is still pressure in the later stage. Although the alumina price increase has a certain driving effect, the caustic soda lacks a continuous upward driver. The downstream's inventory - building sustainability determines the rebound's sustainability [29][30]. 3.7 Pulp - In a volatile and strengthening state. Although the market trading is light and the supply is loose, the price shows a certain upward trend [33][35]. 3.8 Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The domestic float glass market is mainly stable, with some areas showing a slight decline, and the market trading is average [37]. 3.9 Methanol - In a volatile and pressured state. The domestic methanol market rose last week, but the downstream's resistance to high prices and the possible increase in coastal market supply have put pressure on the price. The medium - term trend is still weak [40][43]. 3.10 Urea - In a high - level volatile state. The export policy has a certain impact on the market, and the futures market shows a pattern of long - short game. The demand in some regions is being released, but the price is also restricted by policies [45][48]. 3.11 Styrene - In a short - term volatile state. The weakness of pure benzene has not ended, and the valuation of styrene is relatively high. The short - term inventory accumulation needs time, and attention should be paid to the new orders of the terminal and the restocking of 3S factories [49][50]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The soda ash device is generally stable, the supply is expected to remain low, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to run stably in the short term [51][53]. 3.13 LPG - The cost fluctuates widely, and the civil gas is under short - term pressure. The relevant data of LPG futures and the industrial chain show some changes, and attention should be paid to the device maintenance and market information [57][65]. 3.14 PVC - In a short - term volatile state, and there is still pressure in the later stage. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the export demand can only relieve the pressure temporarily [68][69]. 3.15 Fuel Oil - The fuel oil is stable in the short - term with a narrow - range volatile trend, while the low - sulfur fuel oil continues to decline, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the overseas market narrows slightly [72][73]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - In a high - level volatile state, and the 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads should be held. The futures prices of different contracts show different trends, and the freight rate index also has fluctuations [75].