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长江期货棉纺产业周报:短期供应偏紧,期价震荡偏强-20250519
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-05-19 02:20

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The current supply of cotton in China is tight in the short - to - medium - term, with the 09 contract showing a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. However, the 01 contract may be restricted in its upward potential due to expected new cotton production increases. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June, but caution is needed in July and August. The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors such as Sino - US negotiations and Fed policies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - The current supply of cotton in China is tight. By the end of August, commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than the same period last year and in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, with a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. The 01 contract may be restricted by expected new cotton production increases in Xinjiang [3]. - The short - to - medium - term upward limit is 14,000 - 14,100. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June due to Sino - US trade war easing and potential export rush, but caution is needed in July and August as Sino - US negotiations may be unstable [3]. - The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors. If the negotiation results are good and the Fed cuts interest rates, the cotton price may continue to rise after a decline, challenging 15,000 - 15,100. If the negotiations fail, the price may fall [3]. 2. Market Review - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly due to the relatively smooth Sino - US talks in Geneva and the release of a joint statement on May 12. The pure cotton yarn market is in the traditional off - season, and the industrial transmission is not obvious [5]. - The cotton main contract price was 13,390, up 1,440 or 13.3%; the cotton yarn main contract price was 19,750, up 135 or 0.2%; the US cotton main contract price was 65.43, down 1.7 or 2.6% [6]. 3. Macroeconomic Aspect - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks in Geneva from May 10 - 11 were positive, with the two sides agreeing to establish a consultation mechanism and releasing a joint statement on May 12 [10]. - The US economic activity is slowing down, with April PPI falling 0.5% month - on - month, retail sales growing only 0.1% month - on - month, and manufacturing output falling 0.4% month - on - month. The May housing builder confidence index also dropped to the lowest level since late 2023 [10]. - The US initial jobless claims remained stable at 229,000, while the continued claims increased by 9,000 to 1.881 million [10]. - The Eurozone's Q1 economic growth was revised down, but the labor market remained strong with a 0.3% employment growth [10]. 4. Industrial Chain - In April 2025, China's cotton textile industry PMI was 34.11%, down 26.10 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line. New orders, production, and operating rates all dropped, cotton inventory decreased slightly, and cotton yarn inventory increased significantly [12]. - India's clothing exports in April 2025 were 1.371 billion US dollars, a 14.43% year - on - year increase and a 10.45% month - on - month decrease. From January to April, the total clothing exports were 6.043 billion US dollars, an 8.14% year - on - year increase [12]. - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 3.905 million tons, a 5.5% year - on - year increase, due to an expected increase in planting area [12]. - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.002 million tons, a 9.5% year - on - year decrease, with consumption expected to be 5.712 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year decrease [12]. 5. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production is expected to decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years, consumption is expected to increase year - on - year to the highest level in the past five years, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. - In the 2024/25 forecast, global cotton production is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, consumption is expected to increase slightly, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. 6. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 14.91 million tons due to a reduction in imports. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.21 million tons, mainly due to an increase in cotton consumption for spinning [16][17]. - In the 2025/26 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 15.09 million tons, with a decrease in beginning inventory and an increase in production. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.14 million tons [16][17]. 7. US Cotton Exports - From May 2 - 8, the net signing of US 2024/25 upland cotton was 27,715 tons, an 86% increase from the previous week and a 2% increase from the four - week average. The shipment was 74,661 tons, a 17% decrease from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the four - week average [20]. - China's net signing of current - year upland cotton was 0 tons, with a significant increase in shipment. There was no signing of Pima cotton and no signing of next - year's upland cotton [20]. 8. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - By the end of April, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.1526 million tons, a 14.20% decrease from the previous month and a 4.29% decrease from the same period last year [23]. - By the end of April, the cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 954,200 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons from the end of the previous month. The disposable cotton inventory was 1.2884 million tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the end of the previous month [23]. - The total industrial and commercial inventory was 5.1068 million tons, a decrease of 135,400 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 692,100 tons month - on - month [23]. 9. Cotton Climate - In the Southwest Cotton Region, the weather is sunny, and the sowing operation is in progress. The soil moisture in the sub - surface layer is insufficient, and rainfall is needed [24]. - In the South - Central Cotton Region, the weather is warm, but there is a 40% - 50% probability of scattered thunderstorms in the future, which may delay outdoor operations [28]. 10. Xinjiang Region - On the 16th, there was light rain in parts of the southwestern mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang, and windy and high - temperature weather in parts of northern Xinjiang, eastern Xinjiang, etc. High - temperature weather is expected in parts of Junggar Basin, Tarim Basin, and eastern Xinjiang in the next three days, with a high fire risk level [32]. 11. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - As of May 16, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,548, with an effective forecast of 365, and the total warehouse receipts were 11,913, a decrease of 222 from the previous week [35]. - As of May 6, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures and options increased by 1,452 to - 14,546; the pure futures non - commercial net long positions increased by 1,662 to - 10,076; the commodity index fund net long positions increased by 2,692 to 60,020 [35]. 12. Basis - The current cotton basis is 1,187 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous week; the current cotton yarn basis is 900 yuan, a decrease of 180 yuan from the previous week [39]. 13. Price Differences - The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has widened, currently at 1,222 yuan, an increase of 600 yuan from the previous week; the difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarn prices has widened, currently at - 1,368 yuan, an increase of 262 yuan from the previous week [43]. 14. Industrial Chain Load - The production enthusiasm of textile enterprises is fair, and the operating rate is relatively stable [45]. 15. Industrial Chain Inventory - The inventory of textile enterprises has decreased, and the overall yarn inventory has been transferred to traders [53]. 16. Industrial Chain Profits - Due to the significant increase in cotton prices compared to cotton yarn prices, inland textile enterprises currently have a small loss in immediate cash flow [55].