长江期货PTA产业周报：宏观预期转好，短期偏强震荡-20250519

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The macro - expectation has improved, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The prices of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are expected to show different trends in the short term, with PX and PTA likely to continue to fluctuate strongly, ethylene glycol to fluctuate in the range of 4400 - 4550, and short - fiber having a rebound expectation but limited upside [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - PX: Last week, the PX price continued to rebound. The cost - end crude oil price strengthened, and the PX supply side continued to cut production, with weekly output decreasing and social inventory slowly declining. The PXN slightly recovered. As of May 14, the Asian PX market average price increased by 9.11% - 9.38% compared to the previous week [2][7]. - PTA: The PTA price continued to rise last week. The international oil price at the cost end supported the rebound of chemical products. The PTA start - up rate increased, and the downstream polyester load slightly decreased. The PTA inventory continued to decline, and the price continued to rise. From May 8th to May 15th, the PTA spot price increased by 8.09% [2][3]. - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol price rebounded significantly last week. Initially, it was supported by the rising international oil price, and then the market rebounded from the low level due to the improvement of the macro - situation. However, the rebound amplitude was limited due to the increase in port data [2]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price followed the raw material price fluctuations last week. Initially, the market purchasing was active, and the basis increased. Then, due to the improvement of the macro - situation and short - fiber supply - demand, the price slightly recovered, but the price rebound was less than that of PTA due to concerns about tariff impacts on terminal consumption [2]. 2. Supply Situation - PX: The domestic PX production last week was 64.63 tons, a decrease of 5.94% compared to the previous week. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 77.07%, a decrease of 4.87% compared to the previous week. The PX - N and PX - M spreads increased [8][10]. - PTA: The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate last week was 74.63%, a decrease of 0.35% compared to the previous week and an increase of 4.68% compared to the same period last year. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations [13]. - Ethylene Glycol: The total capacity utilization rate of Chinese ethylene glycol was 61.04%, a decrease of 2.42% compared to the previous week. The weekly output of Chinese ethylene glycol devices was 36.83 tons, a decrease of 1.32% compared to the previous week [15]. 3. Downstream Demand - Polyester: The weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry last week was 158.33 tons, an increase of 0.96% compared to the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 90.93%, a decrease of 0.56% compared to the previous week. The difference in the trends of output and capacity utilization rate was due to the commissioning of new polyester devices [20]. - Terminal Weaving: The comprehensive start - up rate of domestic main weaving production bases last week was 57.65%, an increase of 2.09% compared to the previous week. The start - up rates of different types of looms varied. The trade negotiation between China and the US had a positive impact, and the weaving factories actively purchased raw materials [22]. 4. Market Outlook - PX: The cost - end crude oil price is rising, and domestic and foreign devices continue to be under maintenance. The expected weekly output is 64.73 tons. The PX price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [23]. - PTA: The cost - end crude oil support is weak, but production is expected to increase. The downstream polyester load reduction is limited, and the terminal weaving start - up rate is rising. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [23]. - Ethylene Glycol: The international oil price has rebounded from the low level, and the cost support has improved. The ethylene glycol port inventory remains low. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4400 - 4550 [23]. - Short - fiber: The raw - material PTA price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, providing cost support. The short - fiber still has a rebound expectation, but the upside is limited [23].