Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to be volatile and weak [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The glass futures market was weak last week, with the 09 contract approaching 1000 points on Friday. The supply side saw a slight increase in daily melting volume due to the ignition and resumption of one production line. The national factory inventory remained high and increased slightly, mainly in the Northeast and Central China regions. The spot prices in North China generally decreased, and the profit from coal - gas production slightly declined. The demand side remained weak, and although the price cut of spot goods drove some downstream purchases, most deep - processing orders showed no signs of increase. With the approaching of the rainy season, manufacturers are more willing to reduce inventory, and the spot price is likely to decline further. The weak demand expectation during the off - season and the lack of major favorable policies in the real estate sector will suppress the market. Technically, the short - term trend of the 09 contract remains downward, and it is expected that the glass market will operate in a volatile and weak manner [2] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is to be volatile and weak. The main reasons include the weak operation of glass futures last week, the increase in supply and inventory, the decline in spot prices and profits, the weak demand, the approaching of the rainy season leading to stronger inventory reduction willingness of manufacturers, and the lack of major favorable policies in the real estate sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 1000 points and wait for new short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2] 02 & 03 Market Review - Spot Price: As of May 16, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1200 yuan/ton (-20) in North China, 1140 yuan/ton (-30) in Central China, and 1340 yuan/ton (-30) in East China. The futures price of the glass 09 contract closed at 1005 yuan/ton last Friday, down 39 for the week [8][9] - Price Difference and Basis: As of May 16, the price difference between soda ash and glass was 284 yuan/ton (+13). The basis of the glass 09 contract last Friday was 125 yuan/ton (-41), and the 09 - 01 price difference was - 57 yuan/ton (-13) [12] 04 Profit - Production Process Profits: The cost of the natural - gas production process was 1609 yuan/ton (+2), with a gross profit of - 269 yuan/ton (-32); the cost of the coal - gas production process was 1159 yuan/ton (-4), with a gross profit of 41 yuan/ton (-16); the cost of the petroleum - coke production process was 1206 yuan/ton (+2), with a gross profit of - 66 yuan/ton (-32) [19][22] - Fuel Prices: On May 16, the price of industrial natural gas in Hebei was 4.02 yuan/m³, the price of Dongming Petrochemical 3B petroleum coke was 1600 yuan/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 490 yuan/ton [22] 05 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 156,505 tons/day (unchanged). Currently, there are 222 production lines in operation. Last week, two production lines in Hebei underwent cold repairs, and one production line was restarted [24] 06 Inventory - As of May 16, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,808.2 million weight boxes (+52.2). Among them, the inventory in North China was 1,068 million weight boxes (+3.9), in Central China was 747.1 million weight boxes (+16.6), in East China was 1,556 million weight boxes (-4.6), in South China was 1,053.1 million weight boxes (+4.2), in Southwest China was 1,240.5 million weight boxes (-5.9), the inventory in Shahe factories was 334 million weight boxes (unchanged), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 497 million weight boxes (+38) [32] 07 Deep - processing - The production - sales rate of float glass last week was 99.03% (+12.59%). The operating rate of LOW - E glass on May 16 was 50.2% (+0.5%). The available order days for glass deep - processing in mid - May were 10.4 days (+0.1) [34] 08 & 09 Demand - Automobile Market: In April, China's automobile production was 2.619 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 387,000 and a year - on - year increase of 213,000), and sales were 2.59 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 325,000 and a year - on - year increase of 231,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in April was 905,000, with a penetration rate of 51.5% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%) [44] - Real Estate Market: In March, China's real estate completion area was 42.9606 million m² (a year - on - year decrease of 12%), new construction was 63.8252 million m² (-19%), construction in progress was 77.3309 million m² (-33%), and commercial housing sales were 111.234 million m² (-2%). From May 5th to May 11th, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.68 million square meters (a month - on - month increase of 12% and a year - on - year decrease of 15%). In March, real estate development investment was 918.443 billion yuan (a year - on - year decrease of 10%) [50] 10, 11, 12, 13 Cost - side - Soda Ash - Price and Basis: As of May 16, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1500 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1400 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1625 yuan/ton (+50) in South China. The 2509 contract of soda ash closed at 1289 yuan/ton last Friday (down 16). The basis of the 09 contract of soda ash in Central China last Friday was 11 yuan/ton (+16) [57][59][60] - Profit: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1442 yuan/ton (-32), with a gross profit of 65 yuan/ton (+15); the cost of the co - production process was 1656 yuan/ton (-38), with a gross profit of 288 yuan/ton (+13) [61] - Production and Inventory: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 677,700 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 63,000), including 369,900 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 38,000) and 307,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 25,000). The loss was 168,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 64,600). The number of exchange soda - ash warehouse receipts last weekend was 2844 (a month - on - month decrease of 499). As of May 16, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.712 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 10,700), including 883,300 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 11,100) and 828,700 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 400) [77] - Apparent Consumption and Production - sales Rate: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 358,800 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 80,600), and for light soda ash was 336,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 27,800). The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 98.42% (a month - on - month increase of 2.35%) [78]
玻璃：现货降价去库，盘面或将下破
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-05-19 02:20