Soochow Securities·2025-05-19 02:33Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights weak demand in the US and domestic gas price declines, with European gas prices showing a slight increase. The US LNG import tariff has been reduced to 25% [1][48] - The supply is expected to remain ample, with gas companies optimizing costs and a continued adjustment of pricing mechanisms, leading to potential demand growth [48] Price Tracking - As of May 16, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas prices are as follows: US HH -4.9%, European TTF +0.3%, East Asia JKM +3.8%, China LNG ex-factory -0.4%, and China LNG CIF -0.6% [10][1] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 110.4 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 0.4% to 94.4 billion cubic feet per day [14][1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that after a brief period of high temperatures, the climate has returned to suitable temperatures, leading to continued weak demand in the US natural gas market [14] - In Europe, natural gas consumption for the first two months of 2025 was 115.5 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 11% [16][1] - Domestic gas prices in China have slightly decreased by 0.4% due to slow demand recovery and ample supply [22][1] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments are gradually being implemented, with 63% of cities having executed residential pricing adjustments, resulting in an increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [34][1] Important Events - The US LNG import tariff has been significantly reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [41][1] - The European Commission has voted in favor of introducing more flexible natural gas storage filling targets to avoid supply shortages and price spikes [46][1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the easing supply conditions, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [48][1]