高盛：全球经济-追踪美国外来投资公告

Investment Rating - The report suggests a moderate uplift to annual investment of $30-135 billion, or 0.1%-0.4% of US GDP, over the next few years based on recent investment announcements [31][30][29]. Core Insights - Companies have announced plans to invest over $2 trillion in the US, with foreign governments pledging an additional $4.2 trillion, indicating a potential surge in US investment [3][5]. - However, the actual impact on US investment is expected to be smaller than the announced figures due to several factors, including the likelihood of some investments not materializing and the overlap with previously planned investments [3][8][30]. - A retrospective examination of similar promises during President Trump's first term indicates that approximately 80% of announced investments were realized [9][30]. - The report estimates that focusing only on specific GDP-relevant projects could yield an uplift to annual investment of $30-135 billion, with additional foreign purchases potentially adding another $50 billion to annual US GDP if they materialize [31][30]. Summary by Sections Investment Announcements - Companies have announced over $2 trillion in investments, implying a $500 billion uplift to annual investment, while foreign governments have pledged an additional $4.2 trillion [3][5]. - The report highlights that many of these announcements may not correspond to actual investment as measured in national accounts, with some companies including spending not relevant for GDP [13][14]. Realization of Announcements - Historical data from the first Trump administration shows that most announced projects were completed, although some high-profile projects fell short of their goals [9][12]. - The report notes that 69% of GS equity analysts view the recent announcements as mostly overlapping with prior plans, indicating limited incremental investment [21][24]. Economic Impact - The report concludes that while the announced investments are significant, the actual economic impact is likely to fall short of the headlines, with a more realistic estimate of $30 billion annually after accounting for overlaps and potential non-realization [30][31].