国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250519

Report Overview - Report Date: May 19, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Report Focus: Nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Nickel: Nickel ore contradictions provide a bottom support, while conversion economics may limit the upside valuation [2][4] - Stainless Steel: The cost bottom space is clear, but there is a lack of substantial drivers for upward movement [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: The cost curve continues to decline, and the trend may remain weak [2][10] - Industrial Silicon: It is in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to upstream supply changes [2][14] - Polysilicon: Demand has declined, and the futures price has also maintained a downward trend [2][14] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.1.1 Fundamental Data - Nickel: Shanghai Nickel main contract closing price was 124,060 yuan, with other indicators showing various changes over different time periods [4] - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel main contract closing price was 12,965 yuan, and trading volume and other indicators also changed [4] 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia increased resource tax rates for nickel products, and the new policy took effect on April 26 [4] - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US [5] - Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage, and a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production [7] - The Philippines is discussing a nickel ore export ban, but the authenticity and start time are uncertain [7] - The US and China reached an agreement on tariff reduction during the Geneva economic and trade talks [8] 3.1.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [9] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate 3.2.1 Fundamental Data - The closing prices of 2507 and 2509 contracts decreased, and trading volume and open interest showed different trends [10] - Spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [11] 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - Sigma Lithium reported good performance in Q1 2025 and is promoting the construction of its No. 2 plant [13] - In April, China's power battery loading volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, with different trends for ternary and lithium - iron - phosphate batteries [13] 3.2.3 Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: - 1 [13] 3.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.3.1 Fundamental Data - Industrial Silicon: Si2507 contract closing price decreased, and trading volume, open interest, and other indicators changed [14] - Polysilicon: PS2506 contract closing price decreased, and trading volume and open interest also changed [14] - Inventory, cost, and price data of industrial silicon and polysilicon also showed specific changes [14] 3.3.2 Macro and Industry News - The National Energy Group terminated the tender for a 500MW photovoltaic project component equipment procurement due to large price changes in the photovoltaic component market [14] 3.3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [16]