农林牧渔行业研究：牛肉价格稳步上行，奶牛产能去化有望加速

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a limited expected change in performance compared to the market over the next 3-6 months [72]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a slight increase of 0.05% during the week [12][13]. - The report highlights the ongoing fluctuations in pig prices, with a current average price of 14.61 CNY/kg, reflecting a weekly decrease of 1.42% [19][30]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price adjustments due to seasonal demand and external factors like avian influenza, with white feather chicken prices at 7.40 CNY/kg, down 0.67% from the previous week [30][35]. - The dairy and beef sectors are expected to stabilize as supply-side adjustments take effect, with a potential recovery in raw milk prices anticipated in the second half of 2025 [4][36]. - The planting sector is showing signs of stabilization, with fluctuations in grain prices influenced by external trade policies and weather conditions [5][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2620.55 points, with a weekly increase of 0.05%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [12][13]. - The top-performing sectors included beauty care and non-bank financials, while the agricultural sector ranked 20th [12][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Swine Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.71 kg, with a stable trend compared to historical data [19][20]. - The report notes a profit of 80.66 CNY/head for self-bred pigs, indicating a slight decrease in profitability [19][20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is currently 7.40 CNY/kg, reflecting a decrease due to market conditions [30][35]. - The report anticipates a potential decline in production capacity for white feather chickens due to external factors [35]. 2.3 Livestock - Beef prices are on a steady rise, with expectations for a new cycle in the beef market [4][36]. - The report indicates that the dairy sector is undergoing a supply reduction, which may lead to price stabilization [4][36]. 2.4 Planting Industry Chain - Grain prices are experiencing volatility, with corn prices at 2304.29 CNY/ton, showing a weekly increase of 0.50% [43][44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic agricultural policies in response to external uncertainties [44]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported in the past week [58]. - Aquaculture prices for various fish species are also stable, indicating a steady market [58][63].