高硫旺季需求支撑，低硫近端供应回升

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High-sulfur fuel oil: The near-month crack and monthly spread increased week-on-week, but the spot premium was suppressed below zero. Short-term supply is affected by the unclear Russia-Ukraine situation and refinery maintenance, while demand is boosted by seasonal power generation needs. [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium fluctuated, with supply rising and downstream demand remaining weak. The supply of raw materials from South Sudan is gradually recovering, and exports from some refineries are increasing. [3] - Trading strategies: Adopt a wait-and-see approach for unilateral trading. Take profit on the FU 9-1 calendar spread long position and enter a short position on the LU 7-8 calendar spread at high levels. No options strategy is recommended. [3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive analysis: High-sulfur fuel oil is affected by supply uncertainties and increasing demand. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces rising supply and weak demand. [3] - Trading strategies: Unilateral - wait and see; Arbitrage - FU 9-1 long take profit, LU 7-8 short entry; Options - none. [3] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Supply factors: - Russia: Sanctions and refinery maintenance limit high-sulfur exports. May exports from the Black Sea port are expected to decline. [5] - Mexico: Olmeca refinery's production has increased, and overall exports are expected to remain stable. [8] - Middle East: Sanctions on Iran continue, and power generation demand in Saudi Arabia and Iran may reduce exports. [11] - Demand factors: - High-sulfur: Power generation demand in Egypt, South Asia, and the Middle East is increasing. [16] - Low-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, but the implementation of the European ECA policy may reduce demand. [33] - China's market: The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is stable, and the early issuance of quotas has little impact on the supply-demand balance. [36] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Price data: Includes fuel oil spot prices, cross-regional and cross-period spreads, and natural gas-fuel oil price ratios. [38][44][53] - Inventory data: Inventories in Singapore, ARA, Fujeirah, the US, and Japan are presented, showing overall declines in recent weeks. [60] - Terminal sales data: Singapore's ship fuel sales in April showed a slight decline, with high-sulfur sales increasing and low-sulfur sales decreasing slightly. [68]