黑色：涨跌空间不大，区间交易为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall investment strategy for the black metal industry is that the price fluctuation range is limited, and interval trading is the main approach. For specific varieties, it is recommended to conduct short - term trading for rebar and hot - rolled coils, adopt a long - September and short - January strategy for iron ore, and maintain a neutral and wait - and - see stance for coking coal and coke [4][33][58][59][108]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rebar - Investment Strategy: Wait and see or short - term trading. The price is expected to fluctuate due to low valuation and upcoming demand weakening [4]. - Market Review: The price first rose and then fell last week. The spot price in Hangzhou was 3210 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed at 3082 yuan/ton, also up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis remained stable at 128 yuan [12]. - Steel Mill Profits: Long - process steel mill profits improved, with an estimated profit of about 149 yuan/ton in East China. Short - process profits remained stable, with a flat - electricity profit of about - 114 yuan/ton. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 59.31% (+0.44%) [17]. - Futures Valuation: The futures price is lower than the EAF valley - electricity cost, and the static valuation is at a relatively low level [19]. - Supply - Demand Pattern: Last week, production increased by 3.0 tons to 226.53 tons, apparent demand increased by 46.39 tons to 260.29 tons, and inventory decreased by 33.76 tons to 619.87 tons [27]. Hot - Rolled Coils - Investment Strategy: Short - term operation or take profit on short positions. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [33]. - Valuation: Spot prices rose, with the Shanghai 4.75 hot - rolled coil at 3290 yuan/t, up 70 yuan/t week - on - week. Futures prices strengthened, with the 10 - contract closing at 3226 yuan/t, up 69 yuan/t week - on - week. The basis strengthened by 4 yuan to 84 yuan [39]. - Cost and Profit: Raw material prices varied. Coke prices in Shanxi decreased by 49 yuan/t, Tangshan scrap steel prices increased by 40 yuan/t, and PB powder prices in Rizhao increased by 25 yuan/t. The profit of hot - rolled coils rebounded to about - 69 yuan/t (+8 yuan/t), and the profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 58.87% (+0.84%) [41]. - Supply: Last week, the output of five major steel products was stable, with daily hot - metal output at 244.77t/d (- 0.87t/d week - on - week). The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, with the MS small - sample output at 311.98wt (- 8.40wt week - on - week) [44]. - Demand: The apparent demand of five major steel products weakened, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils fluctuated, with the MS small - sample at 329.53wt (+20.00wt week - on - week) [48]. - Inventory: The mill inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased to a historical low, with the MS small - sample at 78.22wt (- 6.58wt), and the social inventory continued to decline, with the MS small - sample at 269.35wt (- 10.97wt) [54]. Coking Coal and Coke - Investment Strategy: Neutral and wait - and - see [58][59]. - Coking Coal - Price: Domestic coking coal spot prices declined. The price of coking coal in Shanxi was 1150.00 yuan/ton (- 30.00), and the price of Mongolian coal was 1015.00 yuan/ton (- 5.00). The futures price fluctuated and was 852.50 yuan/ton (- 25.00) [66]. - Supply: The production of domestic main - producing areas was generally stable, with some areas experiencing phased production cuts. The daily output of 110 coal - washing plants was 52.81 tons (- 0.29), and the operating rate was 62.08% (- 0.34) [75]. - Demand: The coke market had a continuous price - cut expectation, and downstream coking enterprises maintained a low - inventory procurement strategy [58]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly to 2632.11 tons (- 8.09). Mine inventory increased to 410.50 tons (+20.10), while downstream steel mill and coking plant inventory decreased to 1676.14 tons (- 27.69), and port inventory decreased to 545.47 tons (- 0.50) [83]. - Coke - Price: The spot price was 1380.00 yuan/ton (- 50.00), and the futures price fluctuated and was 1445.50 yuan/ton (- 1.00) [87]. - Supply: The production of main - producing areas was stable, with some areas continuing to limit production due to profit pressure [59]. - Demand: Steel mills maintained a low - inventory management model, and the terminal demand had a seasonal weakening expectation [59]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly to 1039.49 tons (- 9.66). Coking plant inventory decreased to 94.31 tons (- 0.13), steel mill inventory decreased to 663.80 tons (- 7.23), and port inventory decreased to 281.38 tons (- 2.30) [103]. Iron Ore - Investment Strategy: Long - September and short - January. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [108]. - Market Review: The spot prices of various grades of iron ore in Qingdao Port increased. The 09 - contract futures price closed at 728 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week [110]. - Domestic Supply: The capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises was 63.89% (+1.27% week - on - week), the daily output of iron ore concentrate was 49.88 tons (+0.98), and the inventory was 103.27 tons (+2.71) [130]. - Foreign Supply: As of May 9, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,422.4 tons (- 118 week - on - week), with Australian shipments at 1,797.2 tons (+28) and Brazilian shipments at 625.2 tons (- 146) [136]. - Port Situation: On May 9, the arrival volume at 45 domestic ports was 2,354.6 tons (- 95.1 week - on - week), the number of ships at 47 ports was 86 (+2), and the average daily port clearance volume was 323.89 tons (+8.68) [141]. - Inventory: The inventory at 45 domestic ports was 14,166.09 tons (- 72.62 week - on - week), and the inventory of 247 domestic steel mills was 8,961.16 tons (+2.18). The total inventory decreased by 70.44 tons [142]. - Steel Mill Demand: The profitability rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 59.31% (+0.44% week - on - week), the daily hot - metal output was 244.77 tons (- 0.87), and the furnace charge ratio was sinter ore 73.31%, pellet ore 14.55%, and lump ore 12.14% [151].