国新国证期货早报-20250519

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 16, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3367.46, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.07% to 10179.60, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.19% to 2039.45. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.0895 trillion yuan, a decrease of 62.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index continued to adjust on May 16, closing at 3889.08, down 18.11 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 16, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1447.9 yuan, down 27.4 from the previous day. The weighted coking coal index also remained weak, closing at 853.8 yuan, down 33.3 from the previous day [1]. - For coke, steel mills proposed the first - round price cut after the holiday. Relevant national ministries are promoting crude steel output control, and the MIIT is revising the implementation method for steel industry capacity replacement. In the short - term, coke supply elasticity is better than coking coal, and the increase in hot metal output is limited. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 7 yuan/ton this period [1]. - For coking coal, Mongolian 5 raw coal was reported at 815 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The supply is loose, mine production is stable, and the refined coal inventory continued to increase this period [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the expected recovery of sugar cane harvesting progress in central - southern Brazil, ICE sugar futures fell on Friday. Affected by the decline in ICE sugar, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which declined slightly. The ISO raised its forecast for the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons from the previous 4.88 million tons, due to lower - than - expected production in India and Pakistan [2]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed slightly lower on the night of May 16. As of May 16, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 206,043 tons, an increase of 2800 tons from the previous day, and the futures warehouse receipts were 200,270 tons, a decrease of 230 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 74,793 tons, a decrease of 4838 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 70,257 tons, a decrease of 4435 tons [2]. Soybean Meal - The Sino - US economic and trade talks reached an important consensus, which boosted the price of US soybeans. However, the good start of US soybeans in 2025 and the good planting and growing conditions exerted pressure on soybean futures prices. Brazil's soybean harvest is basically completed, with an expected output of 168 million tons, resulting in a generally loose market supply [3]. - In the domestic market, on May 16, soybean meal futures prices fluctuated. The M2509 contract closed at 2899 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82%. Since May, the arrival volume of imported soybeans has increased rapidly, the oil refinery operating rate has continuously increased, and the soybean meal inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, but the increase is slow and still at a low level. With the upcoming peak arrival of imported soybeans, the market expects that the demand of terminal feed and breeding enterprises may be less than the supply of soybean meal, so the soybean meal market may maintain a weak and volatile trend [3][4]. Live Pigs - On May 16, live pig futures prices were weak. The LH2509 contract closed at 13,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87%. In May, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, and the slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises has increased month - on - month. Affected by the narrowing price difference between fat and lean pigs, farmers are more willing to slaughter medium - and large - sized pigs, but have a general willingness to slaughter standard pigs and still have a mentality of holding prices. Currently, the overall consumer demand is weak, the consumer diet structure has been adjusted, and there are many alternative consumptions, resulting in poor sales of fresh pork. The market is generally in a situation of loose supply, and live pig futures prices may be weakly volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [4]. Iron Ore - On May 16, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated and closed down 0.95% at 728 yuan. Last week, the overseas shipment and arrival volume of iron ore both decreased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the supply level tightened. The hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. In the short - term, iron ore prices may fluctuate [4]. Asphalt - On May 16, the main 2506 contract of asphalt futures fluctuated and closed up 0.75% at 3510 yuan. Recently, due to the improvement of refinery production profits, the production load has been increased to varying degrees, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate has continued to increase month - on - month, the inventory level has rebounded, and the shipment volume has increased month - on - month. However, affected by rainy weather, the demand is still hindered. In the short - term, asphalt prices may fluctuate [5]. Cotton - On the night of May 16, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13,415 yuan/ton. As of May 19, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Exchange was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 2 lots compared with the previous day. Future attention should be paid to the weather conditions in major cotton - producing countries and the impact of macro - policies on supply and demand expectations [5]. Shanghai Copper - Currently, Shanghai copper is in a high - level volatile state. On the supply side, the global copper concentrate supply is loose, but overseas smelter maintenance and low domestic inventory cause supply disruptions. On the demand side, the demand in the new energy vehicle and infrastructure sectors is resilient, while weak real estate investment drags down the overall demand. At the macro level, the Fed's interest rate policy remains unchanged, the US dollar fluctuates, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks and changes in tariff policies affect market sentiment. Technically, the main contract of Shanghai copper has support around 77,000 yuan and resistance above 78,500 yuan. Overall, with multiple factors intertwined, without major unexpected events, Shanghai copper prices may fluctuate within the current range. Attention should be paid to the dynamic changes of macro - policies, supply and demand, and inventory [6]. Logs - On May 16, the 2507 contract of logs opened at 788, with a minimum of 779.5, a maximum of 794, and closed at 783, with an increase of 1585 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 and the resistance at 790. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. The port log inventory has dropped to a two - month low, and the outbound volume has increased slightly. The overall demand is still weak, and there is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Attention should be paid to import data, downstream purchasing, and traders' willingness to hold prices [7]. Steel - After the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, there has been a rush to ship on the Sino - US route, reversing the previous pessimistic expectation of reduced demand due to potential tariff increases. Recently, the rush to ship has brought a wave of demand for the black - colored commodities, but the tariffs are only reduced, not completely eliminated, which essentially overdrafts future demand, and there is still some pressure on the export side in the future. In addition, the off - season is approaching, and domestic demand tends to weaken seasonally. Currently, it is difficult for the demand side to improve further. The overall supply - demand pattern of the black - colored commodities remains oversupplied. In the short - term, supported by strong current conditions, steel prices may fluctuate and consolidate, but in the medium - term, the weak trend remains unchanged [7][9]. Alumina - On the raw material side, Guinea has been actively shipping before the rainy season. After the arrival of this batch of goods, the domestic port inventory will increase, and the raw material supply will be supplemented, leading to a decline in the price of bauxite. On the supply side of alumina, due to the previously low spot price, some domestic smelters have carried out maintenance and production reduction operations to control the supply, and traders also have a sentiment of holding prices and惜售. The oversupply situation of alumina has improved. On the demand side, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the upper limit, and the demand for alumina is relatively stable. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a state of slightly converging supply and stable demand, but due to the decline in raw material prices, the cost support has weakened [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, on the supply side of electrolytic aluminum, the new domestic production capacity increment is sporadic, and the operating production capacity is approaching the industry "ceiling", so the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is relatively stable. On the demand side, in the domestic market, the downstream aluminum processing industry is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, and the downstream operating rate has declined; in the overseas market, due to the easing of Sino - US tariff attitudes, there is some demand boost for domestic exports, and the overall demand maintains a slight increase. With relatively stable supply, the industrial inventory is continuously decreasing. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly increasing demand [9].