下游轮胎企业开工率回升，胶价或有望震荡反弹

Group 1: Report's Core View - The downstream tire enterprise operating rate has rebounded, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. The technical analysis shows that the downside space for rubber prices may be limited, and future operations can be based on an oscillating and bullish approach [2][71] Group 2: Market Review - The report presents the weekly trends of the Shanghai Rubber RU main contract, Japanese rubber, and synthetic rubber main contracts, as well as the spread trend between the futures active contracts RU - NR and the basis of synthetic rubber BR futures and spot [9][12][14] Group 3: Rubber Fundamentals 3.1 Supply - Side - The total planting area of ANRPC natural rubber has been decreasing since 2017. The ANRPC's March 2025 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in March will increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, and the annual production in 2025 will increase by 0.4% to 14.897 million tons. The export volume of rubber in Cote d'Ivoire from January to April 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year [26][30] - In April 2025, China imported 685,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 31% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to April 2025, the total import volume was 2.869 million tons, a 23.2% increase [33] - As of Thursday, the total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber futures on the SHFE decreased by 320 tons week - on - week to 200,340 tons, while the total warehouse receipt inventory of No. 20 rubber futures increased by 5,945 tons to 75,196 tons [36] - As of the week of May 9, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.52 million tons to 4.907 million tons, with the bonded area inventory increasing by 0.59 million tons and the general trade inventory decreasing by 70,000 tons [38] 3.2 Demand - Side - From January to March 2025, China's tire outer - tube production increased by 4.4% year - on - year to 283.634 million pieces [42] - In the first quarter of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 2.24 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase, and the export value was 40 billion yuan, a 7% increase [44] - This week, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.07%, up 20.32% from last week, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.96%, up 19.98% from last week [47] - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat trend [56] - At the end of April 2025, the total inventory of all - steel tires in China decreased slightly to 10.93 million pieces, while the total inventory of semi - steel tires increased slightly to 18.14 million pieces [59] 3.3 Related Product Prices and Inventories - The report also presents the price trend of butadiene and the inventory situation of cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises [61][63] Group 4: Market Outlook - As of May 16, the spot prices of 23 - year SCRWF and Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber in the Shanghai market declined. Currently, the fundamentals lack core positive support, downstream demand is average, and new rubber output is expected to increase. However, the rainfall in Thailand may affect the output rhythm, and the increase in imports in China will suppress price movements [70]