信用周观察系列：信用利差压缩行情启动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the bond market may enter a volatile period, but the long - term view of a bond bull market remains unchanged. During the volatile period, it is more difficult for band trading, and the market tends to allocate high - cost - performance assets, which may trigger a credit spread compression market. Credit bonds generally outperform interest - rate bonds, and the sinking strategy is dominant. However, 10 - year long - duration credit bonds may have lower holding - period returns due to weak liquidity [2][12][13] - Credit bonds still have carry trade space. If the subsequent capital situation is stable, it will be conducive to credit spread compression [2][16] - In terms of variety selection, short - duration large - bank capital bonds are more cost - effective in the short term; high - grade long - duration and medium - to long - duration sinking of general credit bonds have higher cost - effectiveness; some bonds such as 10Y medium - and high - grade medium - and short - term notes have relatively large potential compression space for credit spreads [3][23][26] - Overall, 3 - year low - grade and 10 - year high - grade credit bonds have high yields and large spread compression space. Short - to medium - term sinking is a better choice currently, with higher holding - period returns [6][27] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1城投债：发行利率创新低，利差压缩进行时 - Primary Market: From May 1 - 18, 2025, the net financing outflow of urban investment bonds further expanded to 4.38 billion yuan. The primary issuance sentiment heated up, and the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times increased from 57% to 63%. The issuance interest rates of multiple maturities hit record lows. Except for the 3 - 5 - year period, the issuance interest rates of other maturities in May decreased compared with April [30] - Secondary Market: From May 9 - 16, the short - end performance was better. The yields of short - term bonds decreased significantly, while those of medium - and long - term bonds increased. The credit spreads generally compressed, with the short - term compression being more significant. From the perspective of broker transaction data, the short - end still outperformed the long - end, and bonds with implicit ratings of AA(2) and AA - performed better. Some regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Shaanxi had relatively large average low - valuation transaction margins [33][36] 3.2产业债：发行和净融资同比均下降，买盘情绪转弱 - Primary Market: From May 1 - 18, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds decreased year - on - year. The primary issuance sentiment was good, and the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times increased from 31% to 38%. The issuance proportion of medium - and short - term maturities increased, and the issuance maturities were concentrated in the 1 - 3 - year period. The issuance interest rates of maturities within 3 years decreased, while those above 3 years increased [38] - Secondary Market: The buying sentiment of industrial bonds weakened. The transaction duration was extended, and the proportion of high - grade transactions increased [41] 3.3银行资本债：中小行永续债表现占优 - Primary Market: From May 12 - 16, 2025, several banks issued secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds [44] - Secondary Market: The performance of bank capital bonds was differentiated. The yields of large - bank capital bonds and AA - secondary capital bonds generally increased, while small - and medium - sized bank perpetual bonds with coupon advantages were in high demand, with their yields mostly decreasing and credit spreads significantly narrowing. The trading sentiment of bank capital bonds weakened, and there were differences in the duration changes of different types of banks' bond transactions [45][48]