中辉期货日刊-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral [1] - LPG: Neutral [1] - L: Neutral [1] - PP: Neutral [1] - PVC: Neutral [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Neutral [1] - Soda ash: Neutral [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is in a consolidation phase due to the balance between geopolitical easing and macro - economic improvement, with OPEC+ expansion capping the upside [1][2][3]. - LPG is in an oscillatory adjustment due to the rebound in crude oil cost and weak downstream demand [1][7]. - L is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with the high - production cycle suppressing the rebound space in the medium - term [1][11]. - PP has a weak supply - demand pattern in the fundamentals, with a bearish outlook on rebounds [1][14]. - PVC is in a low - level oscillation, with high -开工 and weak domestic demand limiting the rebound height [1][17]. - PX is expected to be bullish in the short - term as the fundamentals continue to improve in May [1][19]. - PTA is expected to be bullish in the short - term, with supply pressure relieved, high downstream polyester load, and inventory reduction [1][22]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be bullish in the short - term, with supply pressure relieved and demand relatively strong [1][25]. - Glass is oscillating around macro - economic sentiment, with a weak spot market suppressing the rebound space [1][29]. - Soda ash is in a low - level oscillation, facing high inventory and low demand, but with some support from supply reduction [1][32]. - Methanol has a relatively loose supply - demand situation and weak cost support, with a bearish outlook on rebounds [1][34]. - Urea has a relatively loose fundamental situation, with limited upside potential due to export policies and the "supply - guarantee and price - stability" principle [1]. - Asphalt is expected to be bullish in the short - term, with the rebound in oil price and increased demand, but with high valuation and sufficient supply [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - 行情回顾: On Friday, international oil prices stabilized and rebounded, with WTI rising 1.34%, Brent rising 1.41%, and SC falling 2.25% [2]. - 基本逻辑: The recent oil price trend is mainly affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. Geopolitical factors are bearish, while macro - economic factors are bullish. Supply may slow down due to the current price drop, and demand growth is expected to increase slightly. Inventory data shows an increase in US commercial crude oil and strategic reserves, and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [3]. - 策略推荐: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ expansion, the oil price will fluctuate between $55 - 65. In the short - term, it will stabilize and rebound, with a focus on the range of [455 - 475] for SC [4]. LPG - 行情回顾: On May 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,280 yuan/ton, down 0.49% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased to varying degrees [6]. - 基本逻辑: The upstream oil price rebounded in the short - term, but the LPG's own fundamentals are bearish. After the reduction of tariffs on the US, the import cost decreased, the downstream PDH device operating rate declined, and the port inventory continued to rise [7]. - 策略推荐: In the long - term, it is mainly anchored to the upstream crude oil, with a bearish outlook. Technically, pay attention to the strong support level of 4,200, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and weak. Short positions can be held. Focus on the range of [4,240 - 4,285] for PG [8]. L - 行情回顾: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 19 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - 基本逻辑: In the short - term, the maintenance loss in May reached a three - year high, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved. However, it is in the traditional demand off - season, and the replenishment intensity is expected to slow down after the phased replenishment. In the medium - term, the high - production cycle suppresses the rebound space [11]. - 策略推荐: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and focus on the range of [7,200 - 7,350] for L [11]. PP - 行情回顾: The L - PP09 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - 基本逻辑: The overall supply - demand contradiction of polypropylene has not been fundamentally resolved. With the weakening of the short - term positive impact of tariff policies, the market sentiment is still bearish, especially with the arrival of the traditional plastic off - season. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term [14]. - 策略推荐: The outlook on rebounds is bearish. Focus on the range of [7,080 - 7,155] for PP [14]. PVC - 行情回顾: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - 基本逻辑: Next week, domestic maintenance will continue, and supply will increase slightly. Domestic demand is stable, but foreign trade orders and demand atmosphere are expected to weaken, and the inventory reduction speed will slow down. The price is expected to be stable, and the policy expectation may weaken [17]. - 策略推荐: Participate in the short - term. Focus on the range of [4,950 - 5,050] for V [17]. PX - 行情回顾: On May 16, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,625 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract oscillated to close at 6,744 (- 18) yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 119 (+ 18) yuan/ton [18]. - 基本逻辑: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the supply pressure is relieved. The processing difference has improved, but it is still at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The demand side is weak due to the large number of PTA device maintenance. The inventory is high compared to the same period of last year but is at a high level in the past five years [19]. - 策略推荐: Focus on the range of [6,750 - 6,880] for PX [20]. PTA - 行情回顾: On May 16, the PTA price in East China was 4,995 (- 35) yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,774 (- 24) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 86 (- 8) yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 221 (- 11) yuan/ton [21]. - 基本逻辑: The PTA device maintenance is high, and the supply pressure is relieved. The downstream polyester load is high, and the terminal weaving operating rate has stopped falling and rebounded. The inventory has decreased, and the processing fee is neutral with room for improvement [22]. - 策略推荐: Focus on the range of [4,770 - 4,860] for TA [23]. Ethylene Glycol - 行情回顾: On May 16, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,568 (- 3) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,460 (- 1) yuan/ton. The EG6 - 9 spread was 55 (- 5) yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 108 (- 2) yuan/ton [24]. - 基本逻辑: The recent device maintenance and load reduction have increased, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved. The arrival volume is low compared to the same period. The demand side is relatively good, with high downstream polyester load and the terminal weaving operating rate stopping falling and rebounding. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the social inventory is in a downward trend [25]. - 策略推荐: Focus on the range of [4,460 - 4,560] for EG [26]. Glass - 行情回顾: The spot market quotation decreased, the futures price oscillated weakly, the basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - 基本逻辑: At the macro level, the macro - economic pressure has eased, and the market risk preference and commodity sentiment have recovered. However, the main contradiction in the glass market is the contraction of supply and the decline of demand. The downstream demand is insufficient, and the inventory is concentrated in the upstream and mid - stream. With the arrival of the rainy season off - season, the spot market is weak [29]. - 策略推荐: Focus on the range of [1,000 - 1,040] for FG [29]. Soda Ash - 行情回顾: The spot price of heavy soda ash increased, the futures price oscillated weakly, the basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [31]. - 基本逻辑: The supply of soda ash has decreased, which provides some support for the futures price. However, the new capacity release expectation is strong, and the demand is still weak. The current inventory level is still at an absolute high, and the cost center has moved down, which suppresses the futures price [32]. - 策略推荐: Pay attention to whether there are new drivers after the futures market fully prices in the supply decline. If there is a short - term rebound, it will provide a better opportunity for short - selling. Focus on the range of [1,280 - 1,310] for SA [32]. Methanol - 行情回顾: On May 16, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,375 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,284 (- 36) yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 113 (+ 17) yuan/ton, and the port basis was 91 (- 14) yuan/ton [33]. - 基本逻辑: The supply pressure of methanol is large, with high device operating rates and expected increases in imports. The demand has improved, with the MTO device operating rate stopping falling. The social inventory has decreased, but the cost support is weak due to the sufficient supply of coal [34]. - 策略推荐: Focus on the range of [2,260 - 2,310] for MA [35].