中辉期货螺纹钢早报-20250519

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Steel Products: Demand is unlikely to improve, with short - term weak and volatile trends. For rebar, the mid - term outlook is weak; for hot - rolled coils, the short - term trend is volatile [3][4][5]. - Iron Ore: The fundamental situation is weakening marginally, and the ore price will face pressure in the later stage. It is recommended to short at high prices and hold inter - period positive spreads [7][8][9]. - Coke: There is still an expectation of price cuts, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [10][11][12]. - Coking Coal: Supply pressure persists, and the weak trend continues [13][14][15]. - Ferroalloys: For ferromanganese, pay attention to the start - up in low - cost areas, with wide - range volatility expected; for ferrosilicon, the price is expected to move within a narrow range [16][17][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Rebar - Core View: Oscillate weakly. The profit of blast - furnace rebar is better than that of hot - rolled coils, and the overall profit of steel mills is high, with high - level hot - metal production. Demand will enter the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand contradiction may intensify. The short - term trend is volatile, and the mid - term outlook is weak. The price range is [3050, 3110] [1]. - Price Data: Futures prices: rebar 01 is 3107 (-43), rebar 05 is 3126 (+51), rebar 10 is 3082 (-36); spot prices in different regions have different changes [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - Core View: Oscillate weakly. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has recovered, inventory continues to decline, and exports are still high. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, but the overall atmosphere in the black industry chain is weak, with a short - term volatile trend. The price range is [3190, 3250] [1]. - Price Data: Futures prices: hot - rolled coil 01 is 3238 (-34), hot - rolled coil 05 is 3255 (-10), hot - rolled coil 10 is 3226 (-34); spot prices in different regions have different changes [2]. Iron Ore - Core View: Short at high prices. The demand for iron ore will remain high supported by steel - enterprise profits, but the terminal demand is weakening, and the contradiction between high hot - metal production and weak terminal demand is accumulating. It is recommended to short at high prices and hold inter - period positive spreads. The price range is [710, 740] [1]. - Price Data: Futures prices: iron ore 01 is 692 (-7), iron ore 05 is 794 (-8), iron ore 09 is 728 (-9); spot prices of different iron ore powders have declined [6]. Coke - Core View: Weak. Hot - metal production is at a high level but may peak. Steel mills are cautious in coke procurement, and there is an expectation of further price cuts. The supply is loose, and it will maintain a weak operation. The price range is [1415, 1455] [1]. - Price Data: Futures prices of different contracts have different changes; spot prices in different regions have declined [10]. Coking Coal - Core View: Weak. Domestic mine production is normal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased. The supply pressure persists, and the supply - demand is loosely balanced, with a downward trend. The price range is [835, 865] [1]. - Price Data: Futures prices of different contracts have declined; spot prices in different regions have different changes [13]. Ferromanganese - Core View: Wide - range volatility. The production reduction range in production areas is expanding, but the reduction in low - cost areas is limited. Pay attention to the start - up in Inner Mongolia. The actual demand may be under pressure, the cost support is insufficient, and the inventory pressure in delivery warehouses is not significantly relieved. The price range is [5750, 6000] [1]. - Price Data: Futures prices of different contracts have different changes; spot prices in different regions have different changes [16]. Ferrosilicon - Core View: Oscillate weakly. The cost support is weakening, the supply is at a low level, but the inventory is relatively high. The short - term market has a small rebound but lacks upward momentum, with a narrow - range operation. The price range is [5570, 5750] [1]. - Price Data: Futures prices of different contracts have increased; spot prices in different regions are stable [16].