全球市场观察系列：AI>关税，科技叙事回归？

Group 1 - The report highlights that the results of the US-China talks exceeded expectations, with significant tariff reductions announced. China's tariff on US goods will decrease from 125% to 10%, while the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for a period of 90 days, which has positively impacted market sentiment [2][3] - The report emphasizes the return of the technology narrative, particularly with the US and Saudi Arabia reaching an AI agreement, which includes a $200 billion investment in AI data centers and infrastructure in the US. Additionally, the lifting of AI chip export restrictions by the Trump administration is noted [2][3] - Inflationary pressures are easing, with the US April CPI falling to 2.3%, below market expectations, and the PPI also showing a significant decrease to 2.4%. This has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that the US stock market is expected to experience volatility in the short term due to unresolved issues such as the downgrade of the US sovereign rating and ongoing geopolitical risks. However, a potential turning point for the market may occur in Q3, driven by strong economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience [4][6] - The Hong Kong stock market is showing signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index rising for five consecutive weeks, supported by positive outcomes from US-China negotiations. The report maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong market, expecting continued fluctuations [4][6] - The report notes that global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $29 billion, with significant inflows into the technology sector, while the energy sector experienced the largest outflows. This trend reflects a shift in investor sentiment towards growth sectors [6][28]