Guotai Junan Securities·2025-05-19 04:35Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a return to weak realities from strong expectations, with cobalt and lithium prices rebounding before retreating [14]. - The easing of US-China trade relations is expected to buffer the decline in lithium prices, although the overall market remains cautious [15]. - Cobalt market dynamics are characterized by a tightening supply and a general wait-and-see attitude among industry players [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium sector is experiencing a slight price decline, with the Wuxi 2507 contract down 1.57% to 62,600 CNY/ton and the Guangxi 2507 contract down 1.94% to 61,800 CNY/ton [14]. - Lithium concentrate prices are reported at 712 USD/ton, a decrease of 13 USD/ton [14]. - Recommended stocks for overweight include Zhongmin Resources, Yahua Group, Cangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Keda Manufacturing, and Tibet Mining [14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - The cobalt market is entering a buffer period with a cautious sentiment prevailing among operators [16]. - Cobalt raw material supply is tightening, and prices for cobalt intermediates remain strong [16]. - The report notes that the European market for cobalt is stabilizing, while domestic demand remains steady [16]. 3. Key Data: New Energy Material Production, Imports, and Metal Prices - Lithium carbonate production decreased by 9.37% week-on-week, while inventory increased by 0.27% [46][47]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 2.15% to a range of 66,100-64,600 CNY/ton [15][57]. - Cobalt prices showed a slight increase, with electrolytic cobalt averaging 24,200 CNY/ton, up 0.05% [16][67]. 4. Listed Company Profit Forecasts - Ganfeng Lithium is rated "Overweight" with a PE of 86.06 for 2025E [94]. - Tianqi Lithium and Shengxin Lithium Energy are rated "Cautious Overweight" with PE ratios of 58.30 and 60.84 respectively [94]. - Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum are also rated "Overweight" with PE ratios of 11.79 and 11.81 respectively [94].