Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Demand remains weak in the US and domestic gas prices have declined, while European gas prices have slightly increased. The inventory levels are lower year-on-year [1][10] - The US LNG import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, improving the economic feasibility of US gas imports [1][41] Summary by Sections Price Tracking - As of May 16, 2025, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH -4.9%, European TTF +0.3%, East Asia JKM +3.8%, China LNG ex-factory -0.4%, and China LNG CIF -0.6% [10] Supply and Demand Analysis - After a brief period of high temperatures, the climate has returned to suitable temperatures, leading to continued weak demand. The average total supply of natural gas in the US increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 1,104 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 0.4% to 944 billion cubic feet per day [14] - European gas consumption for January-February 2025 was 1,155 billion cubic meters, up 11% year-on-year. As of May 15, 2025, European gas inventory was 497 TWh, down 251.5 TWh year-on-year [16] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments are gradually advancing, with 63% of cities implementing residential pricing adjustments, resulting in an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [34] Important Events - The reduction of the US LNG import tariff from 140% to 25% enhances the economic viability of US gas imports [41] - The European Commission has voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets, allowing member states to achieve storage goals with greater flexibility [46][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing mechanism adjustments. Key recommendations include: - New Hope Energy (dividend yield 5.4%) - China Resources Gas (dividend yield 4.5%) - Kunlun Energy (dividend yield 4.5%) - China Gas (dividend yield 7.0%) - Blue Sky Gas (dividend yield 8.8%) [48]
燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报:需求偏弱美国、国内气价回落,库存同比偏低欧洲气价微增,对美LNG关税降至25%