关税阶段性缓和，市场焦点或将回归基本面

Group 1: Trade Agreement Insights - The US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the US's maximum tariff on China dropping from 145% to 30%[9] - Both countries have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% counter-tariffs for 90 days, marking a shift from "almost embargo" to "tradeable" levels[11] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate inflation concerns in the US and improve market sentiment, potentially boosting US stock performance[10] Group 2: Market Implications - The easing of tariffs is likely to enhance risk appetite in the market, with expectations for improved economic forecasts in Q2 2025[11] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have returned to levels prior to the "equivalent tariffs," suggesting a focus on fundamental market conditions moving forward[11] - The report suggests a structural market strategy, with a focus on dividend and technology sectors potentially providing excess returns[18] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The negative impacts of tariffs on Chinese exports may be delayed until Q3 2025, with Q2 expected to shift from a drag to a boost for exports[11] - The necessity for preemptive domestic fiscal policies has decreased due to improved economic expectations[11] - The ongoing trade conflict is anticipated to enter a prolonged "negotiation phase," indicating that optimism should be tempered[18]