Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures [2] - Report Period: May 19 - 23, 2025 [1] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The soybean meal futures price is expected to continue its weak oscillatory consolidation in the medium - term, and short - term M2509 is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 2850 - 3000 [6][10] 1.3 Section Summaries 1.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Medium - term trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a stage of weak oscillatory consolidation [6] - Trend logic: In the 19th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%. Soybean inventory was 5.3491 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6027 million tons (12.70%); soybean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,100 tons (23.26%). The concentrated listing of Brazilian soybeans and the easing of Sino - US trade relations have led to a more abundant global soybean supply. The increase in domestic imports and the recovery of the oil mill operating rate have strengthened the loose pattern of soybean meal. However, the current terminal breeding feed demand is fair, and the historically low soybean meal inventory restricts the phased release of supply, providing some support for prices [6] - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price was in a downward channel, with slightly more funds on the long side. M2509 was expected to continue its weak oscillation in the short term, with an operating range of 2850 - 3000, and interval operations could be considered [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price is in a downward channel, with slightly more funds on the short side. Under the loose supply pattern, M2509 is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with an operating range of 2850 - 3000, and interval operations can be considered [10] - Variety diagnosis: The long - short flow is - 48.5, indicating that the main force is slightly bearish; the capital energy is 12.7, and the funds are basically stable; the long - short divergence is 96.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [13] 1.3.3 Relevant Data - Data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Trading Consultation Department of Great Wall Futures [17][20][22] - Relevant data include weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio of soybean meal [17][19][22] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue its range - bound oscillation in the medium - term, and short - term Y2509 is expected to maintain the range - bound oscillation pattern in the range of 7650 - 8000 [27][31] 2.3 Section Summaries 2.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Medium - term trend: The overall trend of the main soybean oil contract continues the range - bound oscillation [27] - Trend logic: According to Mysteel data, in the 19th week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 350,700 tons, an increase of 61,400 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 654,400 tons, an increase of 27,600 tons from the previous week. With the increase in soybean supply to oil mills and the recovery of the operating rate, the increase in crushing volume has led to a more abundant soybean oil supply, but weak terminal consumption has kept market transactions sluggish. The current soybean oil inventory is still at a historical low, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations has improved the macro sentiment, providing support. However, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy and the fluctuations in crude oil prices have added to market disturbances [27] - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [27] 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price was in a sideways consolidation stage, with more funds on the long side. It was expected to maintain the range - bound oscillation in the short term. The operating range of Y2509 was 7650 - 8000, and interval operations could be considered [30] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price is in a sideways consolidation stage, with more funds on the short side. Due to the loose supply - demand situation of soybean oil futures, combined with crude oil fluctuations and policy disturbances, it is expected to maintain the range - bound oscillation pattern in the short term. The operating range of Y2509 is 7650 - 8000, and interval operations can be considered [31] - Variety diagnosis: The long - short flow is - 56.5, indicating that the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is - 2.2, and the funds are basically stable; the long - short divergence is 63.0, indicating a low risk of market reversal [34] 2.3.3 Relevant Data - Data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Trading Consultation Department of Great Wall Futures [40][44][49] - Relevant data include weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume of soybean oil, as well as weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate of soybeans, and weekly port inventory [38][41][45]
豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250519
Chang Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-19 05:04