中辉有色观点-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term price may fluctuate, but long - term strategic allocation value is high [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, and the previous interval trading idea can be continued [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to take profit on long positions gradually, but long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Hold short positions for zinc as supply increases and demand is weak in the long - run [1]. - Lead and tin prices are expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - Aluminum price rebounds and then falls [1]. - Nickel price rebounds under pressure [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook due to supply - demand imbalance [1]. - For lithium carbonate, hold short positions as the fundamental outlook is bearish [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: Gold price fell more than 2% during Russia - Ukraine negotiations, then the decline narrowed. Silver also showed price fluctuations. For example, SHFE gold rose 1.62% from the previous value, and SHFE silver rose 1.16% [2]. - Basic Logic: U.S. consumer confidence dropped sharply, credit rating was downgraded, and Russia - Ukraine negotiations made no progress. Short - term upward momentum is weakened, but long - term factors support gold [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, gold may fluctuate after adjustment, focus on the performance around 740 - 750. Long - term investors should wait for stabilization. Silver may continue to trade in the range of [8000, 8200] [3]. Copper - Market Performance: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, testing the lower support level. For example, the price of SHFE copper main contract decreased by 0.82% [4]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas copper mine supply is tight. Trump's copper import tariff policy is drying up non - U.S. copper inventories, but there is a risk of price decline in mid - to - late May [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Partially take profit on long positions at high levels. Be cautious of high - level decline risks. Short - term, focus on the range of [77000, 78000] for SHFE copper and [9200, 9600] for LME copper [6]. Zinc - Market Performance: Zinc price oscillated and declined, retesting the bottom. For example, the price of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 0.49% [8]. - Industrial Logic: In 2025, zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the overall performance is lower than previous years [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold previous short positions. In the long - run, look for opportunities to short at high levels. Focus on the range of [22000, 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2600, 2700] for LME zinc [9]. Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum price rebounded and then fell, while alumina rebounded significantly. For example, the price of SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.27% [10]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas trade environment eases. Aluminum inventory decreases, but demand is further differentiated. Alumina supply is in excess, and attention should be paid to ore - end disturbances [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Temporarily wait and see for SHFE aluminum, focus on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900 - 20600]. Alumina is expected to stabilize [11]. Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel price rebounded and then fell, and stainless steel was under pressure. For example, the price of LME nickel decreased by 1.27% [12]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas environment eases. Mine - end policies in the Philippines and Indonesia support nickel price, but domestic inventory is still high. Stainless steel inventory pressure is slightly reduced [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focus on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2507 opened low and went lower, hitting a new low with significant increase in positions [14]. - Industrial Logic: The fundamental outlook is bearish. Raw material prices continue to fall, supply is sufficient, demand is entering the off - season, and inventory is increasing [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions in the range of [61000 - 62300] [15].