生猪周报：现货价格出现松动期价震荡偏弱运行-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is a possibility of new lows in pig prices in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Based on piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until September, and with sufficient supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise strongly. However, there is still marginal profit for weight gain within 150 kg, and the entry of second - fattening may support the spot price when it drops to around 14 yuan/kg. The 2509 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures End 3.1.1 Main Contract Basis Situation - Affected by the continuously high slaughter weight, the market expects the future pig slaughter pressure to remain, and the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs has adjusted weakly with fluctuations. The basis of the main contract on May 16, 2025, was 1200 yuan/ton [2][3]. 3.1.2 Price Changes of Each Contract - The prices of far - month contracts fluctuate [5]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread Changes - Due to the continuously high slaughter weight, the market expects the slaughter pressure to shift backward. The spread between the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 contracts shows a positive spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End 3.2.1 Pig Price and Slaughter Volume - This week, pig prices have slightly loosened, and the slaughter volume has continued to decline [13]. 3.2.2 Regional Spread - Overall, Henan is a high - price area this year [15]. 3.2.3 Fat - Standard Price Spread - The fat - standard price spread is still weakly fluctuating, and the supply of fat pigs is sufficient [17]. 3.2.4 Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Price Spread - Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [19]. 3.2.5 Comparison of Related Products and Fresh - Frozen Spread - The cost - performance of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen spread for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [21]. 3.2.6 Breeding Profit - The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is in a marginal profit state [23]. 3.2.7 Slaughter Weight - The slaughter weight is stable. Although the weights of retail and group ports have been adjusted this week, the actual slaughter weights of both retail and group ports are still increasing [25]. 3.3 Production Capacity End 3.3.1 Inventory of Reproductive Sows - According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of March was 40.39 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Data from Yongyi Consulting and My steel show that the inventory of reproductive sows in their samples increased in April [27]. 3.3.2 Sow Culling Situation - The price of culled sows has been running steadily this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in April [30]. 3.3.3 Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets - In April, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month, indicating a continuous increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in October this year [32]. 3.3.4 Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm - The price of 15 - kg piglets continued to decline this week, while the price of 50 - kg binary sows was running steadily [34]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In March, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.63 million, a month - on - month increase of 40.7% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. Slaughter enterprises have the action of dividing and warehousing frozen products, which supports pig prices [36]. 3.5 Import End - In March 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].