GEELY AUTO(00175) 中泰证券·2025-05-19 04:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 72.495 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.672 billion yuan, up 263.6% year-on-year [3][6] - The "One Geely" plan is progressing smoothly, with significant growth in the Galaxy brand's sales contributing to overall revenue growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 179.846 billion yuan - 2024A: 240.194 billion yuan - 2025E: 318.690 billion yuan - 2026E: 383.448 billion yuan - 2027E: 430.228 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 21%, 34%, 33%, 20%, and 12% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023A: 5.166 billion yuan - 2024A: 16.632 billion yuan - 2025E: 13.385 billion yuan - 2026E: 16.763 billion yuan - 2027E: 19.556 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 1%, 222%, -20%, 25%, and 17% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 0.51 yuan - 2024A: 1.65 yuan - 2025E: 1.33 yuan - 2026E: 1.66 yuan - 2027E: 1.94 yuan [2] Sales and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 15.78%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio decreased by 2.61 percentage points to approximately 11.55% [6] - The Galaxy brand's sales reached 260,000 units in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 574.1% [6] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is actively pursuing the privatization of Zeekr to enhance operational efficiency and cost reduction [6] - Upcoming model launches, such as the Lynk 900 and Starry 8, are expected to contribute positively to sales in Q2 2025 [6] - The company maintains a positive outlook on revenue and profit growth, with projected revenues of 318.69 billion yuan, 383.45 billion yuan, and 430.23 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]