国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it gives individual commodity trend intensities, which can be used as a reference for investment judgment. For example, the trend intensity of gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish view; copper has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][9][13]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Each commodity has its own market situation and price trend. Generally, factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - news, and cost changes affect commodity prices. For example, the cost curve of lithium carbonate is moving down, and its trend may remain weak; copper lacks driving forces and its price is in a volatile state [2][11][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: It broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different degrees of change. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 1.65%, and the overnight decline was - 0.38% [2][6][9]. - Silver: It oscillated and declined, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of silver futures and spot also fluctuated. For instance, the daily increase of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 1.13%, and the overnight decline was - 0.15% [2][6][9]. Base Metals - Copper: It lacked driving forces and the price was in a volatile state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international copper futures and spot changed, and there were also news about copper mines' production and cooperation [11][13]. - Aluminum: It was in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of aluminum futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, showed certain changes. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55 compared with the previous day [14][16]. - Alumina: It rebounded significantly, with a trend intensity of 0. The trading volume and price of alumina futures increased, and there were changes in export data [14][16]. - Zinc: There was a surplus in the long - term, and the price was under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [17][18]. - Lead: There was a weak supply - demand situation, and it was in an oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of lead futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [20][21]. - Tin: It was in a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [23][25]. - Nickel: The contradiction in nickel ore provided a bottom - support, and the conversion economy might limit the upside valuation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of nickel futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [27][32]. - Stainless Steel: The cost bottom space was clear, but there was a lack of substantial driving forces for upward movement, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot changed [27][32]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The cost curve continued to move down, and the trend might remain weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of lithium - carbonate futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [33][35]. - Industrial Silicon: It was in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to upstream supply changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - Polysilicon: The demand declined, and the market also maintained a downward trend, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The raw materials continued to decline, and they were in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [39][41]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: They were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [42][44]. - Coke and Coking Coal: With the decline of hot metal, they were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [46][47][50]. - Steam Coal: The coal - mine inventory increased, and it was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [51][53]. - Para - Xylene: It was in a single - sided oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of para - xylene futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][56][59]. - PTA: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of PTA futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [56][59][60]. - MEG: It was still strong on a single - sided basis, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of MEG futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][59][61]. - Rubber: It was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of rubber futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [2][63][65]. Agricultural Products - The report also briefly mentions some agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis. For example, palm oil is under pressure and looking for support at the bottom, and soybean oil has increased short - term risks due to the fluctuation of US biodiesel policy [4].